In this post and video (above) I will show you how you can identify industries which are doing well at any given period of time. The video focuses on the industries that may do well in a recession from a fundamental point of view. However, care must be taken that no industry is truly safe from a recession.
Here I focus on “buying” stocks as opposed to “shorting” stocks (making money downwards). While I prefer the latter strategy in a recession period (and I will post articles on that very soon), you must always do your best to minimise the risks to your trade or investment.
Nice walk through! Very basic and informative stuff! I don’t really know what your aims are with these videos but if you are trying to educate the general populous i would say; good start!
Hello Alesio,
first of all Congratulations!
You are only one of a few people worldwide who told BBC/CNN and all other sheeps what is coming! Respect for that and thank you for your time and your efforts to help people benefit from the coming crash!
Your video is really good, explaining logical points and I like it really!
Could you please give advice of futures going short of the EUR, or what would you to make huge profits!?
Thank you in advance and many greetings from Germany ( Stuttgart )
useless video!
Thanks.. great video.. Would be great if you can give some tips on forex market too..
could you also create a similar video about how To Make Money In A Recession in the forex market
This video is perfecet, it is simply explaining how to see the opportunities on the market,it is the simplest and safest way to invest. thank you.
Hey Alessio
I like what you are doing, it takes courage and in many ways balls to put yourself out there.
I do agree with the outline you put forward, it would be great for you to explain why we should not invest in sectors that have declined the most.
I will keep watching your post, all the best
Regards
Oscar
Thanks Oscar – more on that soon.
Glad you liked it. Thanks
Hi Robert – It would be great if you could explain why you found it useless. Thanks.
It makes perfect sense really to invest in those particular markets. One thing I would like to know is how you get started on making that investment and how it works out.
Thanks – I will look into that sure.
Thank you Johan
Thank you for your comment. Yes, I will do my best to make similar videos on FX.
Thank you very much, Ale!
Alessio,
Why did’t I find you before.
May be you can throw some light on Silver/Gold trade and TA on a regular basis.
Here in India both metals (physical) have been in 1-2 week waiting period and
premiums have increased.
But, MCX a Indian commodity exchange it is following Comex path and
is having downward pressure.
Thanks for sharing your views. May be if you are going to do this
regularly this site is going to be visited by many Turd (Fergusan) followers.
TFMetalsReport.com
Hi, nice video. One thing I don’t get it. Tobacco raised only less than 2% in 3 months, that is way less than inflation in the place I live (Argentina), so I think I should not consider something like this. But didn’t know about Dollar Tree, good tip. Any recommendation for people living in developing countries?
Best, SB.
hello intristing and i like but you can do even for greece too …you understand ..we are here not UK USA . somethink more difficult.. like we are now.. thank you this is help .
You made my day, when you showed up on BBC! I was laughing my pants off 🙂 Thx!
Very much liked the BBC interview. Appreciated your perspective and honesty.
I also liked the intro video to investing in a down market. Perfect for an intro video (Keep it simple).
Looking forward to more in depth material. Please post more ASAP.
Hi Alessio,
I watched your interview on BBC with interest and I have to say that I think the same thing. I live in Italy and here all the media say that your inteview was a fake, just a joke, and that you’re not a real trader, without money and without a proper home. what do you think about it? they write that you confessed that you’re not a professional but you just like to have public spechees. Is that true or there is something that I don’t know?
Thank you for the video. I want more parts 🙂
Yeah, great video ‘cos it encourages people to use their common sense without trying to scare or confuse them with technical jargon. (The only reason someone might not like it is if they are jealous or paid trolls out to discredit those in the public eye who speak the truth)
Useless video. Do actually think buying stocks is the right decision in these markets? Where you dreming of buying tobacco and utilities? Come on!
People want to learn how to speculate on a bearish market. When is the right time? What are you looking for? There are a few who is informing about this aspect.
How did the guy make 100 million dollars during the 30’ies?
Keep up the good work!
Not bad boss. Automoblies gow down in a reccession. There is an economic term for this i forgot my economics class. What about say a company like Loydds Tsb it was I think 22p a share a week ago. Surely that is a good buy. The lowest a stock can mover 1/4 or 1/8 or a penny. Therefore if it went up 2p which is nothing for a ftse 100 share, 2p not 2 percent. Then this would equate to a 10% return. I am study financial economics and like to dabble in shares when i have cash. i think a stock that does not have a downward or upward trend is the best it is reliable and has reliable variance so you can steal a few percent here and there. Gold’s negative correlation with the market index increase dramatically when there is a more than 4% change in the index. The penny shop you mentioned was a nice tip. With regards to cigarettes and alchol yes the desire will increas but the demand may not because they are luxuary goods and people can not afford them.
I am looking for a trading or advicing role…anyone.
Hy Alessio !
I like your videos. It makes sense how you filter stocks in the beginnig. Personally i buy stocks on the austrian or german market. I try to use the tips of buffet and look for the intristic value of a stock and it worked well for me . I don,t really know what to do in a crash market but i am out of stocks anyway in the moment. Do you also make a video on bonds to to secure assets? Thx
The key to buying shares is working out the intrinsic value and holding them for a year or ten.
Claiming dividends. Yes the recession is a good indicator of the market systematic variance but also look at non-systematic firm specific variance, i.e. what is happening in a company independent of the market movement. Technical analysis is a waste of time, drawing Fibonacci lines is a way of time Fibonacci related to fractural geometry and dimensions not to probability which is statistics related. You can work out a good share to buy with common sense. When you diversify your portfolio you diversify the market risk out of the equation. Therefore if you guys want to take advantage of having an insight into the market (beta) non-systematic movement, i.e. you know certain stocks will go down because of the recession then do not diversify because you will dilute your beta. I recommend not to use a margin or leverage just buy a share hold on to it for a week or a year then sell. If the share goes down when you hoped it would go up, buy more (only if non leverage).
Your video is appreciated.
Hi Alessio,
You really deserve a prize for being so bulk and brave. Only if we had a few more people like u with heart for humanity, the world would have been a different place… I salute u man,,, keep it up and wish u best of luck.
K
Technical analysis is a waste of time as now a days goldmansacks and other manipulate the markets with black boxes, computer software to artificially manipulate the demand and supply of the market. Therefore why try and workout a pattern if it is contrived, like a slot machine in a casino.
Distressed equities are good as they either make a come back or go down the hill. If you have a struggling distressed equity in a recession, go short baby.
To contradict myself a little if you are a hard core day trader then trade options.
Many more ideas someone give me a job…
interesting
do you also apply the kondratieff cycle into your way of thinking?
Well done Alessio, finally someone that crossed the boarder between politics and reality!
For the next guide I would suggest you to show some stocks (look for example at Italian Banks) that are so underestimated that even if they go on default today they would be able to repay stocks with their actual capitalization.
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Hi Alessio, I’m stunned about the things I’m reading about you in my country’s newspapers (Spain), a full-featured range of “ad-hominen” attacks, as Government already done so.
Many thanks for being so brave, may the Almighty wish to bless and protect you. I dedicate to you, and then, to our political “leaders” some Jesus’ words:
http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2021:28-32&version=NASB
Thanks for the video, already subscribed to your channel and trying to learn about.
When the market go down you can buy TVIX, move up when dow jones go down and move on volatility.
go from $20 to $85 in some weeks,
velocityshares: TVIX, VXX, VIXM
love what you doing.you are our pride.
I found it (actually you) very “eye-opening” ! I dont really know how to start on it though. Can I trust in a trading company, when crash comes or should I keep my money in my pillowcase? Or just buy gold and wait till I can sell it. I am a mother of 2 little ones, and very worried about their future. Writing you from Hungary, which is an extremely “stupid” place to be at in the time of a recession…
i dont live in the US or uk,but i found the video very informative
elect your things near it Recession | In what condition To Acquire Coin In A Recession (Piece 1) | Leadingtrader
Great video Alessio! I look forward to seeing how to make money in a down market using shorts. How do you like double short ETFs like HSD or HXD (Canada)? Also, what’s your take on oil?
I especially liked the comment “Just because it has a low price is not a good reason to buy it.”
Love the Honesty !!
Too many of us have all done that.
Hi Alessio,
I enjoyed your video and yes I share your view about the future world coming.
After 2008 I started to be very aware, and so far I am trying to understand more about the financial world.
My aim is not to become rich, I just want to protect my family and my savings.
I will be glad to watch your next videos
Leona
Italy
Hi Alessio , u r doin great job by explaining the truth and save ourself during this kind of situations. its very usefull thoughts which u share with us . i invest more in forex . and i want you to give us some really good ideas to protect the investment during these days because from last few days market is not doing good its very difficult to understand . Please do advice us . Thank you very much .
Thank you so much for this video. That’s just what i need. “How to invest in a recession” ist very important to us all. Btw, is there a good book you recommend for the non-professional investors? And is there a good site/payed service (other than those which you mentioned) which provide us with real-time news and analysis about certain stocks?
Thank you so much, and keep the good work!
Your interview on BBC has blown the lid, as a result people know what to expect in the future. Now that your well known following your media exposure, I hope that you will not charge, now or in the future for your videos & Trading Guidance & hope that free streams of information from you will flow continuously. However it is said that “NOTHING COMES FREE”.
I hope that your not like others who initially provide free information on a niche then sell tools, software & DVD’s.
Very informative. Thanks for the free tips as others charge big money for this very same information. Once again, THANKS. I look forward to more free information/videos.
I am proud of you for speaking out! Thank you on behalf of all those who have not written to you, thanking you.
Your interview has inspired me to consider trading with whats left after spending majority of my pay packet every month on share trading.
I consider my self as that person who wants to follow a path, into the unknown in depth to many (Trading.
I feel that i have boarded a ship & were heading for a destination, which you are steering & guiding us to a place that you know but is new to many people.
Looking forward to more in depth material.
Thanks
Hello, Alessio
Thank you for you video and your comments, here and in BBC/CNN.
I am personally worried about my savings. I am Spanish and last August I opened a bank account in Germany to try to keep my savings in a safer place if Spain leaves the euro.
I still do not invest in stock exchange / markets but I do not rule out. I will follow your posts.
Thank you again for your comments. Best regards.
Hi Alessio,
Its great, appreciate to work and will look forward for next part. It will help us to invest in right industry.
Very simple informative people for the masses. Lets hope more people will wake up from your candor on national TV and this will help them to prepare for what is to come. You got some xalls! Thumbs up! PS – I kinda think yes US Treasury will be better off but ultimately that will too die in my opinion. What do you think?
@Donna Greece was bankrupt before they ever joined the Euro zone. We in Germany knew it. France (apparently) knew it. And I believe everybody else knew it too.
Greece’s balance was a catastrophe year after year after year. They already had been close to bankruptcy by then and suddenly just one year before they would join, Greece was in the green. The “reforms” had worked, they said.
Seriously? Even though we wanted to believe it nobody was THAT blind. They didn’t WANT to see it for political reasons. I believe they thought: “How bad can it get?” Well – they couldn’t know that the US, Ireland and Greece would get into trouble all at the same time.
There is little that can safe Greece except the Greek people.
There are still other options: Turkey is one and China the other. China has already said they will bail Europe out. However: both Turkey and China will expect us to return a favor. That’s why Europe is reluctant to take the bait.
Yes – we need to change the whole system and not just try to cure the phenomenon. But even if we do, it will come too late for Greece. Yes – not “Greece” is bankrupt, the Greek finance system is. We are saving “Greece” to prevent a financial crisis. But if we wouldn’t the financial crisis would take Greece down with it.
Yes – We do know it is all a piece of shit. But for now there is little we can do about it. We need to get Greece back in the green. Period.
And to this “so-called” Allessio. Tobacco and Alcohol, hugh? Okay, okay. I will give you that you guys are cool.
You haven’t heard about the Leuna deal or have you? Let’s tell you a story: you know that Europe has only 1 oil and 1 gas pipeline, right? 100% fresh oil and gas straight from good old mother Russia delivered via the Druschba (“friendship”) pipeline to the door to Schwedt, a town in Eastern Germany, where we have the only petrol refinery. From there a smaller pipeline transports the remaining parts of the oil to facilities in Leuna.
This pipeline was running at a discount flat-rate in GDR times with long running contracts. Apart from that pipeline we are completely dependent on oil from the North Sea and other off-shore regions.
In Eastern Germany every school kid had economical maps for the whole area that clearly show that.
Now: after the collapse of the Eastern block the pipeline access, the refinery, the petrol industry and all petrol stations were sold for 1 Euro. All to the same company: Elf Aquitaine on personal request by Germany’s former chancellor Helmut Kohl. This company then solely owned the whole petrol production.
After the chancellor’s party lost the elections in 1998, they were caught destroying relevant papers on the matter shortly before the parties switched offices. However: too late.
A French court finally uncovered the whole plot, but the whole issue was never taken to the court.
There is far more wrong with this world than just the stock market and it has been for quite a long time.
Great job an BBC! Finally, Somebody telling the world exactly how it is. No sugar coating, no BS, just facts. I’m in the pizza biz and its booming due partially to the recession. I dream of another recession too. and yes, alcohol sales are up.
Thanks Alessio. I started working with someone similar to you here in the states-Phil Grande at http://www.philsgang.com. I’m a big picture type of person in that you two should join forces so we can make a strong network/platform for all of us. We are not going to beat the playground “bullies”(Goldman Sachs), but we can be better partners.
P.S. Your BBC commentary was rock’n awesome!
Hi! I’m now interested in things like that, economy, how the wordl is controled by the bank… and with your videos i learn faster than other ways, so Thank You so much.
Pd: 1 question… i know that tv change the information, but now a group of economist talk about you like a false economist… i just think that this are they opinion of an trader who make people think and reflex about things that they dont want to people know.. isnt it? I’m spanish man about 20 years.. and i actually think that the banks control the goverment, to control the people by keeping their “eyes closed”, whithout any class in the school of really important things and givin the news cuted by the half… so what can i do? learn more? stay in my house waiting for the bank to leave me out..? Thanks a lot
Hi alessio what your take on holding physical precious metals?
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watch for double AGENTS …APPEARS DROM NO WHERE AND BECOMES THE GOOD GUY.
IRAN/USA
very good How do I got started and open an account with options express?
Nice going. Basic simple understandable. Fills in a lot of “gaps” for me personally. I’ve been learning to trade since 2008 by guesswork. Only just now taking it more seriously. Thanks for the really great information.
Good stuff. More informational videos and posts would be great. Thanks
This video was a real eye-opener for me. I’m so glad I came here from your twitter feed!
I guess it would be helpful to explain why it was an eye-opener…
I’ve been watching the market seriously for the last two months, and I was totally under the impression that I should buy “Cheap” stocks. Very glad you clarified what I really should be looking for. Thanks again.
DollarTree has tripled since beginning of 2008, how much upside is left (and with that, how do we estimate where to exit)? Also would like to know what would be the most logical hedge to this stock given the market uncertainty (limited upside, huge downside). Thx so much!
David – good question. The next 2 weeks is going to be revealing. I am wary of going long on any stock in what could well be the start of a bear market. But I will keep you posted. Keep watching this blog. Thanks.
Thanks Aaron. Glad to have you as a reader.
Thanks Adam.
Thanks for your comment. Glad it helped.
You can do it online wilkie.
Aaron – check out the post I have made today in answer to your query.
It is not a bad idea to invest in metals. But I would think carefully about when to buy them (and when to sell them). I think in the long term their prospects are good.
What you say is true about the banks Javi. Keep your eyes open and believe nothing until you have checked it for yourself.
Thanks Brian. Cheers.
Interesting point of view there Andy. I never thought of it that way.
Mr. Rastani,
Your video was very helpful in explaining what to look for in the months to come in the stock market as it goes down. You explained everything in an easy to understand manner, and by using tables and graphs, and offering some useful links, you verified your advice.
We look forward to seeing your other videos.
Great video! Can’t wait to watch part 2.
Excellent stuff. Really helpful advice and tips on what to look out for and where to find valuable information. Keep it coming.
Thanks J. I am glad it helped you.
Thanks Isabel.
Thanks Patty – I am happy you found it useful. Take care.
Alessio, I salute your honesty and courage as you straightened out what the mindset of an investor is on BBC television. Upon googling some of the topics you brought up on the interview, I was directed to this site and I’m glad to have found it. You are a bright man and I’m sure your words have incited some thought for the blind optimists out there. People need to wake up and it’s good to see someone shaking things up.
Dan – thank you for taking the time to write this comment. I really appreciate it and I am glad to have someone like yourself as a reader. Take care.
Important topic. The stocks that do well also happen to be dividend payers. Often these often more stability and with “contagion” may crash without anything fundamentally wrong with them. The key question is during the recession when do you pull the trigger and begin buying? Do you look for some uptrend?
I loved your comment about greed and fear during the 2000 tech bubble. Thanks for your thoughtful posts. Your BBC interview about “Goldman Sachs” runs the world was fresh and honest.
Hello, i saw your video it was very helpful.Thank you! But please tell me what sites should i chose for trading (forex, commodities or stocks). I tried a lot of different sites and i had lots of demo accounts, but i don’t know what to think about them, it seems to good to be true! Please tell me what are the best options.
Thank you
Simple and very usefull !
Thank you.
I similar to your essay character unequivocally amatory this website. “If we authority wisely, you’ll be obeyed cheerfully.” by Thomas Fuller.
Hi Alessio, coul you please tell me your opinion about my question of 30 Sept.? thanks
Tell us, Alessio, how much were you payed for your statements on the BBC? 🙂
And perhaps more important, who payed you?
Mr. Rastani, I think you have shown it’s just a matter of “commom sense”.
An attention-grabbing dialogue is price comment. I believe that you need to write more on this matter, it won’t be a taboo subject but typically persons are not sufficient to speak on such topics. To the next. Cheers
A powerful share, I just given this onto a colleague who was doing a little bit evaluation on this. And he in truth bought me breakfast as a result of I discovered it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the treat! However yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love reading more on this topic. If doable, as you grow to be expertise, would you thoughts updating your weblog with more particulars? It’s highly useful for me. Large thumb up for this weblog put up!
Thanks for the post!
I like your spirit. Maybe its your passion and sincerity with a willingness to say your truth that is so attractive. The financial advice is great, but given some coaching on public speaking and debating would net you far more than the market and serve all very well. Here in the states, we need people like you to keep talking and unfortunately taking the hits. Take care.
Ok, but… Where i can find the part 2?
may need this in the coming recession thanks to Obama reelection
Cheers Ben – looks like you called the election result very well.