I have a confession to make. I go to bed every night and I pray for another recession. In fact, if indeed we are heading for another global recession, which I believe we are, then I have been dreaming of this moment for 3 years!
Why? Because I am a “bad guy”, right?
OK listen up. Because what I am about to tell you may shock you.
Most people only remember the 1930s depression for one thing only: the stock market crash. Well guess what? What is not commonly known or commonly taught is that the ’30s depression made some people millionaires. It is a known fact that more millionaires have been made in the 1930s depression than at any other period of time in history!
You see, in the 1930s a group of people knew how to make money in a downward market. They saw an opportunity. These guys were prepared and they took action! If you don’t believe me, just read about a guy called Jesse Livermore. Jesse Livermore made $100 million after the 1929 crash (that’s in 1930s money).
Why is the idea of making money from a recession or a depression so appealing?
The “Perfect” Market Conditions
One reason that a recession or depression is appealing to stock market or forex traders is that a recession creates the “perfect” market conditions to make money. These are conditions which most traders like me crave for.
Allow me to explain.
A recession occurs during an unstable economic climate. When markets become unstable, whether it is bad news or uncertainty, they create volatility. A volatile market often creates trending markets.
To put it quite simply, a trending market is when that market moves in a particular direction deliberately. A lot of the times, markets are just range-bound or oscillating sideways. While you can still make money in those kind of markets, for a “trend” trader that kind of choppiness can cause limitless damage to their trading accounts.
In the words of W.D. Gann: “The big money is made in the big trends.” A good trader will identify the early parts of that trend and ride it through until the trend comes to an end.
Speed is King
There is a phrase in Wall Street that says “markets will take the staircase upwards, but they ride the elevator downwards.”
In case the meaning of that phrase is lost on you, here is an example: it took fifteen years for the stock price of Bank of America (BAC) to rise from $10 to $55 (see chart). Guess how long it took for its stock price to plunge from $55 to $5? Two years! Yes, you read that correctly, two years.
Markets often move much faster downwards than they do upwards.
So let’s be honest folks. Who really wants to take a staircase?
What most people tend to be unaware of is that you can make money as the stock prices are falling. If you can apply the right strategies to make money in a downward market (more on that in upcoming posts), then heck, I am going to get inside that elevator and press the button to take me to the ground floor!
Don’t get me wrong. I am not into “get rich quick”. Far from it. I have always believed that the fastest way to go broke is to try to get rich quick. There are a lot of risks involved in trading no matter which direction you want to bet, long or short.
Conclusion
One of my biggest regrets is that I did not make as much money as I should have done in the crash of 2008. I did not do too badly though. I managed to capture the most of that year’s trends. But I got sucked into the “fear” and the “waiting for the news” B.S. that everybody else was getting sucked into.
I made a promise to myself: never again! That year taught me to stick to my trading plan and just trade the nice trends like a good trader.
That is exactly what I am waiting for this year and next year as well. If a global recession is heading our way, then that is an opportunity. It is an opportunity not just for me but for everybody, including you, dear reader.
Don’t get fooled by the fear of everyone else. Always remember the words of Warren Buffet: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”.
Did this article help you? What are your own views on it? Let me know by leaving me a comment below, even if you disagree with me.
I’ve just discovered your site, Alessio, and it’s very impressive. I’ve added you to my favourites list.
Yes, it’s fun to trade these markets, but I’m still a bit of a novice, so I look forward to your views in the future. I’ve been plodding along over the last decade riding the gold bull 100% long, and luckily I decided to start serious trading just before the current crash. I managed to get 30% of my portfolio into cash before the fall, so I’ll be waiting with baited breath for your ideas. My current plan is to re-enter into gold shares when they cross back above their 50sma’s and when they trigger macd buy crossovers. This is a pretty crude strategy, but it’s worked so far.
you are so absolutely bat shit mad its terrifying, the mere idea there could be more of you with this framework of beliefs is probably going to keep me awake at night for weeks, all the same, thanks for the heads up re: our impending doom, I’ll be running for the hills right about now
Very interesting. I really liked your interview with the BBC. They were all excited. I am long in SLV and just could not get out. All I can do at this point is wait for it to go back up. How long do you believe it will take to start moving up again?
thanks,
Although i profoundly understand and agree with your theory, there is only one part that should caution anyone who can’t afford to play around on the market: You may predict the certainty of profiting from a trend (be it a recession, an emerging technology, etc.) but you can not predict the trend itself, and when it will happen.
After all, spotting a trend prior to anyone else is the art of good stock trading. But i guess most people didn’t consider recessions a trend (worth trading in) …
I saw your vid at zerohedge and someone posted a link to your blog and I have now added your site to favorites. Iam a blue collar worker and manage my own money. I avoided the 2008-2009 crash and traded successfully in and out of the market during that time. I avoided the market for all of 2010(sat in cash),I did not believe in this phony recovery. I have made money this year(back into cash in april). I agree with your analysis and have told others that I know to watch your interview. I have been telling people since 2008 that this crises that started 2008 will not end well. I have told people to prepare,hopefully I can get some to finally do something. You were a rockstar in that bbc video. thanks
I just watched your video interview from this morning (posted on zerohedge), and I must say, this cracks me up! It’s hilarious how people react when you speak the truth. I have a similar confession.. I’m fearful that a republican will be elected to the presidency and will try to implement fiscal austerity measures that might change the outlook of our economy to something more positive. While I would consider myself republican (more of a Tea Partier really) my investment thesis is based on the fact that Obama and his administration are so incompetent that a crash is inevitable. Like you, I’m setting myself up to hit it big when the walls come tumbling down. Not that I don’t think I couldn’t make some money in a slow growing economy, I just find that volatility, if played correctly, generates a lot more wealth, more quickly than a slow and steady market.. But, I’m also 34 years old and can take the risk. Definitely interested in hearing your ideas on how you’ll play the upcoming kazaster. Short euro? Long dollar? Until it changes to short dollar long gold?? Exciting times…
Jesse Livermore went broke during the depression.
Alessio, I saw you on BBC News earlier today and really enjoyed your interview and your honesty. After seeing your interview and stumbling upon your website, I’m compelled to get a bit more advice from you as I am a young entrepreneur who is seriously considering getting involved in either the share or forex market. At a time of great fear for most people, I too believe there’s a good chance for money to be made, but having no real experience or exposure to trading, I need some good advice and mentoring from the right person who can take me under their wing and teach me the ropes. With that in mjnd, your advice on how to start would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.
I have been in the investment business for 13 years. You say a lot, bit actually don’t say much at all. I am not being disrespectful, but you don’t even mention what you recommend would be protective in a market like the bone you predict is looming. Be specific and you will earn more respect.
Alessio your totally spot on. The big money is in the big swing. Livermore started shorting the markets early and had to cover before shorting the hell of it probably on lower highs. I hope you make a fortune. Great articles.
I definitely applaud your honesty on the BBC, but I’m surprised that it seems to bother you that people think you’re a “bad guy.” After all, you rule the world, right? You want people to like you, too?
Seriously, I understand your point that it’s possible to make money off a self-destructing economy. Good for you for telling the truth. (News flash, though: lots of us non-rich types already knew a lot of that.)
What surprises me, though, is that you don’t see that there’s a teensy little moral problem with profiting off of other people’s ruined lives. Based on what you said on the BBC this morning, you’re a parasite, right? An honest parasite, but still a parasite.
I agree there is money to be made from a down market, but I see the new homeless tents and the sad people who lost their houses and their family, and I wonder if a recession is so great for society. The banks are stealing the homes of common people, trading fiat electronic currency for real assets, and it makes me wonder what type of predatory system we have actually created in Wall Street, and what are the roles we play as sharks and predators ?
I agree with you, there is money to be made from a down market, but I see the new homeless tents and the sad people who lost their houses and their family, and I wonder if a recession is so great for society. The banks are stealing the homes of common people, trading fiat electronic currency for real assets, and it makes me wonder what type of predatory system we have actually created in Wall Street, and what are the roles we play as sharks and predators ?
Robert – the thing is.. now is a good time to get your own back on the banks! When most banks go bankrupts (as they will), if you follow hedging strategies, you can profit from their decline. BAC was such an example.
Hi Nathan. You’d be surprised how many people I have met who don’t know about the stuff I talked about in this article. Listen, banks have been profiting from other people’s misery for years. Now it is the small guy’s turn. If people learnt how to make money in a downward market – then it is our revenge against them. I count myself as one of the good guys because I want others to win too.
Thanks for responding, Alessio. I appreciate what you’re saying, really I do, but I don’t think your notion of spreading the word about how to profit off a down economy is realistic. Take my own situation, not that I’m bitter or anything. I’m a teacher. I’m lucky if I have enough money to pay my mortgage at the end of the month. I’m never sure if I’m going to be able afford my kid’s asthma medication. I have sixty thousand dollars in student loan debt and my house lost forty per cent of its value in the last few years. No amount of discussion of “hedging strategies” is going to protect me if my job disappears. You have to have way more money than the average slob in order to employ the strategies you describe. It’s great that you’re doing what you can to democratize the trading game, and you seem like a decent person, but really … when it comes right down to it, you really are just picking other people’s pockets, unless I’m misunderstanding something. The fact that the banks have already been doing it for decades doesn’t change that.
Alessio, I saw you on the BBC and thank you for your dose of reality which is missing from the UK media. Two questions I do have for you are:
1.What is your view on the Austrian Business Cycle and Austrian economics in general?
2.What is your view that we are on a path to an even worse economic situation whereby we see paper currency become worthless like all fiat money before it?
I’ve have added you to my favourites now as well. Keep us posted on your future TV appearances.
Alessio,
I sense you’ve failed to account for one variable, which is large scale social and geo-political unrest in the event of collapse. In 1930, the world carried just shy of 2 billion people many of whom lived off the land or knew trades that enabled them to survive in the midst of profound scarcity. We had untapped resources back then and just needed systems in place to employ labor to access and transform those resources into usable goods. The per-capita share of untapped resources has declined because the global population has more than tripled, and what is left is seriously depleted.
By 1960 the US carried 180 million, and now that population has nearly doubled. The UK has grown from 50 Mil to over 60 mil in the same period. Most of the world is now metropolitan and lacks skills necessary for survival (agriculture, industry) in the midst of spreading monetary and market crisis.
When a currency no longer serves a population that currency has no value. How then are you going to make profit in the midst of massive upheaval? The depression was orderly. This will not be.
1930 is not a map for today, that paradigm is dead and so are its markets. Will you invest in a future that leaves us safe, fed and healthy?
Love your candor on BBC, I salute your bravery. I am glad I found your site. I want to learn as much as I can.
A humble apprentice….
All of you that are calling him down are fools..the whole lot of you!! …getting your panties in a bunch because he states in a TV interview that he wants to make money. That is his job people! He is a trader!
He had the balls to go on TV this morning to give you all a much needed reality check and tell you how it is (something your precious main stream media will never do) and you call him scum for doing his job?
Clearly a lot of you don’t realize this , but you all have the same opportunity to make money from the market downturn..he is not causing the market crash..he is reading it and reacting to it! You can now take the advice he gave you, get informed and position your self to preserve your wealth and even make some money..then with the money you can save the children, whales, trees or what have you.
What’s worth mentioning about Livermore is that earned and lost several fortunes during his lifetime, was married three times and eventually blew his own brains out with a pistol. More to life than money, my friend.
Hilarious interview on BBC!!!
WTF-all u said was buy treasuries, and did a BOO! sky is falling -get out of the market, oh no!!.Nothing of substance was said–only BOO! And Why not buy GS if they ‘run the world?’
You sir are part of The House agenda which is pushing stories to crash market while at the same time sell gold. Next, The House will buy equities and put out the ‘it ain’t as bad as we thought stories’ with positive equity stories & laugh at herd(most of those in this comments section)
Lying securities fraudsters at Zero Hedge pushing hard mantra: ‘Just like 2008’. AGAIN-The House game plan is: push market lower while selling gold then buy equties lower & laugh at herd. The ‘chatter’ says rally after BIG selling bout. The House wants crash market soon / sell gold and buy on crash. Which is why u were on TV today-TO push this agenda.
And what’s all this BS resentmentin the comments section against those big mean awful banks?-the fact is alot of big fat greedy Americans who made under 50 grand a year wanted a half million dollar house–and now they whine whine cause they can’t make the payments. Did the banks force the idiots to sign? No. But the government forced the banks to give the loans to these deadbeats because of the community re-investment act or else banks would be sued by government for racism. i guess the governments do run the world.
Bruce Berkowitz buying BAC right now-which means buying when everyone(all the fools on this board) are cowering in fear.
“Always remember the words of Warren Buffet: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”. You and everyone here sounds very fearful.
Oh, you forgot to mention that Jessie Livermore later lost everything and commited suicide.
Beware!— Alessio Rastani wants all the windows and orphans shares and he doesn’t care. Hail Satan! Mr RATani
Garth Turner says you’re a showboat looking for speaking gigs http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/09/26/hoovered/#comments
So, Euro/USD to parity closely followed by a staircase move to 2.0 over 2012+?
If governments are not the power, then their bonds will not as valuable tomorrow as they are today?! Your dollar long position I assume is short-medium (3 to 6 months) outlook?
So, Euro/USD to parity closely followed by a staircase move to 2.0 over 2012+?
If governments are not the power, then their bonds will not as valuable tomorrow as they are today?! Your dollar long position I assume is short-medium (3 to 6 months) outlook?
I think people should buy real gold, land & property (NOW).
The S&P500 should rise up to above 1216.13 and if it falls below 1155 it will keep falling (45%)
This will probably happen around July 2012.
The Stock Market will probably bottom out around September 2013. This would be the time to buy stocks.
Although there has a massive head & shoulder forming on the U.S stock market since 1995 and will be confirmed in the next 2 years – you never know – maybe the Chinese might step in and keep the markets ranging for many years. Do they want to lose western markets?
That is wishful thinking though.
The Chinese economy has been showing signs of distress too.
What people forget is that the world came out of the shadow of the 1929 Crash in 3 years.
But all said and done the global economic situation does not look good for a generation.
At least house prices are affordable.
The new money lenders? Apple, Microsoft, Google etc?
………………………
Good luck with your quest to help the ordinary people – hope they sit up and listen and can work out how to benefit from your advice. However, you need to tell people exactly what to do and how to do it. You have stuck your head above the parapet and in spite of the ensuing bile and hatred insist that people listen and follow your advice.
You have the media’s attention. And God is watching to.
Good Evening from New York City’s Financial District – where I reside, but am, in fact, an artist.
I’d like to echo Mr. Nathan Rein’s comments and move a step further to ask if you, Mr. Rastani, might advise how people who could begin with only $100 or even with $500, could benefit from downward market trends. I have long seen Wall Street as Vegas-for-bankers, where many of them own the house. It seems it must be a fun play-land in and of itself, but the circumstance of our society, being so highly interwoven and literally indebted to monetary policy and it’s trends, holds profound real-world impact.
If I were a clerk at a shoe store in 1929 and I decided to place money into the market, say $23 (that’s around $300) in today’s money, with the right investment, could I have seen a healthy return?
That queried, I am an artist in 2011 and could certainly work to save $300 to throw into the ring. Is it worth it? If so, how would I do it? Most organizations I have approached about such ‘low sums’ balk at the idea, or even disallow traders with such ‘paltry’ amounts – according to them – to me, $300 is a very precious sum.
Thanks for your reasoned and healthy debate and for your experienced insights, thus far.
Cheers.
“I’m a teacher. I’m lucky if I have enough money to pay my mortgage at the end of the month.”
Hm, well maybe if the stock market lost value, you could invest your teaching money into shares of Johnson and Johnson @ $5 per share and make $95 selling $100 J&J shares when the market came back….duuuuuh!!!!! OH NO, that would be so WRONG, making money like that and paying off your mortgage and everything hahaha. You make money by working smarter, not harder, stupid communists.
YOU ROCK ALESSIO!!
Nathan….
Your point of view assumes that the only moral way to attempt to protect one’s assets is by investing in ‘growth’; what if, because of the ham-fisted actions of policy makers, growth is not a possibility? If positioning one’s savings on the “long” side of the market is a certain way to lose money, what is one to do in your moral paradigm? Must a person with tangible wealth sacrifice it to the stupidity of public policy so that he not be thought unseemly? Is it immoral to recognize that politicians do stupid and reckless things, and to attempt to protect yourselves from those actions. If I am on a crowded street corner and see an out of control truck careening in my direction, is it immoral to get out of the way, even if others cannot or will not do so?
I’m not a wealthy man either, but I follow macro-economics closely, and have played both sides of the market since mid-2007. I saw a mess coming, and I positioned what money I could scrape together in an attempt to protect myself as much as possible. It wasn’t out of a wish that the broad society or any individual suffer, but simply a recognition of the logical ends of the path we were (and are) traveling. If a person is simply protecting the meager amount he has managed to accumulate, what is it that you find immoral or unseemly?
A person taking a position that doesn’t bet on growth, if growth is not likely, is prudent. Bank of America doesn’t become solvent because no one shorts the stock. They will not rehire positions shuttled because the collective of investors choose to ignore it’s insolvency. The world cannot avoid economic certainty by burying our heads in the sand.
I do not mean to be rude or obtuse…. but the purpose of my investments are not to provide you with a job or soothe your fears about the future. It is to protect, and hopefully grow, the resources I have forgone in current and past consumption so that I might enjoy it at another time where I think it more prudent or find it more necessary. Failing that, I pass it to posterity as I see fit.
We all have bills to pay and fears about our future. Your point of view assumes that someone else bears ultimate responsibility for your well-being and eschews altering your own actions so that you might tend to it for yourself. You might wish such a thing to be true (a paternal protector to end all uncertainty), but in the end summation, only you can secure your future. Policy makers cannot steer society to a centrally-planned nirvana where your wants are met and your future is certain and secure. Indeed, it is the pursuit of such a fairy tale that is largely responsible for the state of public finance today, and is at the heart of the impending maelstrom. Further, the attempts to do so entails the immoral appropriation of my property and sublimation of my freedom. Your situation is common and regrettable, but others who made different choices shouldn’t be penalized for not sharing your outcome. The real answer is to see what you can do to most effectively change your own situation rather than cast aspersions in the directions of those who have attempted to do so for themselves.
Nathan – Alessio profiting off an impending fall is not picking anyone’s pocket’s. You obviously ARE misunderstanding something. Starting with the fact that you think a person needs to have “way more money than the average slob” to employ the strategies he describes. One could start by finding a bearish mutual fund such as the Prudent Bear fund. There are other options like short ETFs if one took the time to research. The fact that someone makes money off a decline does not mean that person is causing the price to go down. In the marketplace there is supply and demand and the two will meet and settle on a price. Some participants are more informed than others but that is a personal choice.
You seem to be way above you head in debt. Sounds like you should stop paying your mortgage and wait for foreclosure and/or declare bankruptcy if the medication needs of your child is that close to the edge. Get back on the path towards a sound financial foundation. It would be interesting to know the facts of your original mortgage, home equity lines, etc to find out if the decisions you made regarding were speculative as Alessio’s downside positions are.
Nathan:
Alessio is right on the point on what is happening. He is trying to warn people, which can help them. If they do not want to short stocks or the market, they can get out and move to cash. So he is doing a service for the public by telling us the truth. He was great on TV like Jim Rogers or Marc Faber. My only suggestion for him is to curb his enthusiasm a bit and not pray for a recession each night. Sadly it is coming. Consider praying for those less fortunate people who hopefully will not be totally destroyed by this meltdown.
I think this time it will be much worse than 2008. Some people are just giddy about the possible take down of the corrupt banking system. I am not so sure that what may replace it will be any better. We can hope and try to be a positive force if that happens.
I saw your BBC interview. Money is just a theoretical magician’s trick now. Adding numbers to a trading account does not equate to a sound mind and body which will take one forward when the dust settles. Your statement of Goldman Sachs running the world was a shocker for some – I myself have resolved it to the currency-wizards which can add as many zeros behind their numbers as they please, all the while, the workers must work. Prepare ourselves. Yes. I was in the USSR when everyone had as many rubles as they pleased, trouble was, only hard-currency would purchase any items of consequence – empty stores. Hard-currency, yes where has it gone? Greece Broke? How about the entire world is broke. All that is left is ledger entries, fiat currency, a little gold and silver which is not edible. What good is being short a falling dagger if the increase in one’s trading account is just more numbers?
I liked your interview on BBC, and found several good pieces of info in your posts. However, I am a bit put off by seeing contradictory statements from you. For example, your reference and possibly even worshiping of livermore implies something entirely contradictory from the “trade to make a living not a killing” lesson from another post.
You are one of the “bad guys” you mention. At least own up to it. Surely you aren’t as destructive as the ones behind the big banks engaging in similar activity on a larger scale, but you are nonetheless part of the problem. The sociopaths running those banks started with some of the sane rationalizations you use to make yourself not sound like one of them. And surely others would do it if you didn’t, another rationalization often employed.
On the other end of your winning trades there is a loser, a loser who probably shouldn’t be playing the game, but often gets confidence to play from someone like yourself projecting the image of easy money. And even in other cases, like failed banks, people who didn’t even want to play the game were stuck with coercive taxation to bail them out of the losses incurred to traders profiting from their downfall.
And as someone else mentioned, with the system in place you are one of the small percentage of people with available capital to put on these moves..and maybe even a smaller percentage that can properly execute them. The collective actions of professional exploiters like yourself is an injustice and represents massive inequality in this world. You lifestyle is fueled by people like Nathan and others who suffer from this system.
The goal of the post is not to pass judgement, but point of more of the truth as you did so eloquently on BBC.
Nice job my Italian Paisano. Agree that a strategy of buying on the way down will pay off and one of selling on the way up as it relates to your personal timelines, is key. Buy real stuff. Companies and resources that provide real value, value that is measurable or felt directly. Don’t buy if you don’t like or use the product or don’t understand it. Buy on fear, sell when people who are clueless start talking about it as a buying opp. Don’t forget that the US has the world reseve currency and will go to any length to keep it. The emerging countries are trying to undermine the US, but the US has cards they are playing and a couple aces tucked away as end game scenarios. Remember the movie WarGames? WOPR – War Operation Plan Response. Here is a clue: It’s not fiction any longer. Goldman and the like want to keep the dollar weak long term and keep the emerging hooked and controlled by dollar smack. The only way the dollar gets dumped is if the US is threatened and subcumbs. Chances are slim, but China is great at chess and getting to checkmate. Hence, US presence in the oil areas. All the rest is noise. That is the carrot pulling the cart. Germany was trying to play, but they think so robotic that they screw up. The Fed and Bernanke know exactly what they are doing, but they don’t care about u. They know way before u do what is up. Don’t be stupid. Note: Greece lead the Western world out of darkness and is doing it again full circle. Hats off to the Greek people.
You know what my message is? Open your eyes and step back from your form of repetetive foolishness before you chechout. The cliches are true, you will not take it with you and life is short. Most impacting limitations are the ones you accept and believe.
“What you leave behind is not what is engraved in stone monuments, but what is woven into the lives of others.”
– Pericles
Ancient Greek Politician, General and Statesman, of the aristocratic Alcmaeonid family. 495 BC-429 BC
Fresh and refreshing interview on BBC today – found it on Zero Hedge and embedded it on my blog. I too think that the over leveraged banking system is collapsing with some degree of bank runs going on in Europe starting with those exposed to bad debts and the real interesting part is to watch or better yet to anticipate how it spreads. The default scenario we are presented with is deflation and precious metals may get hit until the presses are turned on, unless more demand shifts from treasuries to gold. My question for you is what signs would you anticipate are likely to see that gold and silver are bottoming – did they just do it or will they drift down more like in 2008 with everything else?
Thank You
Alessio – I believe that you did the right thing on the BBC by being honest. For those of us who do not circulate in your world, the truth is often hard to find, and even harder to accept once we find it. So, thank you.
As for preparing, here is my plan to ride the ‘crash’. Would you let me know what you think? 1) Short the Dow Jones and S&P 500 with DOG and SH, respectively 2) Go long on the dollar with UUP 3) Go long on intermediate treasury bonds with VGIT 4) Short oil with DUG.
As for timing, that’s the trick, isn’t it?
Gratefully,
Dave
Don’t know if it really helps you or anyone else to state the obvious so blatantly on international TV, but it sure is fun to watch.
Very true – I should have mentioned it in retrospect. cheers.
Alessio,
I just saw your BBC interview and it was a good wake up call. First of all I want to thank you for coming out and telling the cold truth. I also want to thank you for commenting into these user comments.
I respect your understanding and patience of the common people’s skepticism and for your openness to explain yourself. First thing I ask myself. Was it just a publicity stunt to get people’s trust and get them behind your strategy so you could make more money? To a common person I’m sure you can see that traders and bankers seem all the same. Make money at any cost.
The second question is if you are actually speaking the truth and not just the truth you yourself believe to be true but the actual reality of it why would you be able to predict it?
Predicting always being predicting based on calculations of vast variety of constantly changing variables even if you have lucked out to be right in the past it doesn’t mean you couldn’t be going to the totally wrong direction because you weren’t aware of some variable which is to change everything.
Thank you for understanding the common persons point of view and putting in clear thought why you should be trusted and pointing out the risks that can come with it and the reality of the fact. Thank you also for sharing and explaining clearly in commomn tearms your strategies and what we should learn/read to better understand this and make our own choices with that understanding.
“We all have an innate need to be right even at the cost of being blind to the truth.”
Cheers
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Nathan, how is short selling and buying puts equating to picking other people’s pockets? I’m an average slob and advice like Alessio’s can help me. Even a small amount of money ($500) in a trading account with some knowledge and wisdom can make a lot of money fast in a down market. If you have a 401k or other pension fund that is invested in mutual funds or stocks, his advice is to put it into a safe fund (money market or secured fund) and get out of the market now. Just knowing when to move your money is of great value. If your job does disappear, maybe you should go into investing. You could then start a charity to help other unemployed teachers learn how to invest. Some people want to place blame, gripe, and do nothing. The bold will find solutions and make a way to be prosperous.
The same thing C3X has been saying now for over 2 months. Probably the only guys who caught the crash from 1340 to 1120 on the daily trading portfolio with returns in excess of 70% in each of the last 3 months. The following trends were caught:
USD Index breakout at 76.3
EUR/USD breakdown from 1.41
SP Emini crash from 1300 to 1115
AUD/USD break down from 1.07 to 0.9750
usd/chf BREAK FROM 0.8570 TO 0.91
USDCAD FROM .98 TO 1.0380
Check their trading. Ex big four traders launched the trading site http://Capital3x.com
‘One of the good guys’, eh? I don’t doubt what you’re saying about your ability to make millions off the misery of others … Nor about the likelihood of worldwide crash and depression. What I find astounding is the extent of your self-delusion. Rubbing your hands in glee at the human suffering that’s coming, and how much you can make from it … You soulless, tiny human being. You’re a cancer on an ailing society, and a gloating, self-congratulating one at that. Your family must be so proud.
I certainly agree that bearish markets tend to create more volatility, and more trading opportunities. I also must admit that my forex site prospers in times of trouble, and slows down with volatility.
However, a recession is not what I pray for at night 🙂
Alessio, your new found fame has obviously attracted a lot of criticism from a some progressive/left wing types. I was tempted to angrily wade into the debate on the side of trading, but this is not the way to win hearts and minds.
To the naysayers, I am not wealthy, and I live in a poor, depressed, former industrial city in the north of the UK, our equivalent of somewhere like Detroit, and over the last decade I have contributed a significant amount of money from my trading to my local economy. Rather than feeling guilty, I am proud of the contribution that I have been able to make, and proud of the fact that a banker somewhere in London may have thought twice about buying a new Ferrari thanks, in small part, to my efforts.
So before moralising, and criticising others for making money, please try and understand exactly what is going on in the financial world, and be prepared accept the consequences of your beliefs. You may feel superior today before the collapse, but drifting through life disdaining the acquisition of money, and yet probably heavily indebted and existing as a wage slave yourselves, which in itself is having taken a financial position, your views may not seem so comforting in a few years time.
It is simply amazing to me that people actually think that “money” gives a rat’s ass about your feelings, or the fact that you have little income, or that people are trying to make money in a down market. Here is a simple truth for all of you “touchy-feely” people out there. Money doesn’t care about you or your family. Its money; the paper (or digital) equivalent of another person’s knowledge, good fortune, hard work, life savings, gambling winnings, waiter tips etc. It does not give a shit about you or your family. Rastani goes on BBC and gives his honest assessment of what might happen and how you can maybe make money, and you morons actually think he is the bad guy!!?? Amazing. Continue to wallow in your self pity about how bad things are, and what a “bad guy” Rastini is because he says that he wants to make money. Yea, yea, I know, on other people’s misfortune…what ever. You are the same people that say “Money is the root of all evil.” Well, if it is, I will take all the roots thank you very much. Go ahead blast away….you people just don’t get it.
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Hi Allesio, Many peoople are able to take advantage of other folks problems. Surgeons love a tumour and undertakers adore a flu epidemic.
However, they would be advised not to measure up the bodies Before the events, likewise it may be wise for you not to talk with such glee about the upcoming recession.
A recession will be a disaster for many of the poor in the world.Choices will not be between shorting the market or steady stock for income , it may be a grim choice of medicine or bread.
Your choice of words is interesting, but please, perhaps you could refrain from combining the words Pray/ Recession. I am sure that you are not a shallow opportunist and a quiet reflection on your words will perhaps assist you in rewriting the sentiment.
Alessio, your conclusion makes no sense: “Listen, banks have been profiting from other people’s misery for years. Now it is the small guy’s turn. If people learnt how to make money in a downward market – then it is our revenge against them.”
Who is the small guy? Do you really think a homeless family on food stamps is ever going to get any revenge against the banks who stole everything? Is the 75 year old senior who lost her 401K and pension funds going to ever get any revenge before she gets kicked to the streets? Are the starving children of this country ever going to get revenge? I doubt it!
Who exactly are you pitching your seminars to? College kids who just saw the previews for Atlas Shrugged and still believe in the concept of upward mobility? The profiteers of Wall Street in the 30’s were the same folks that played the game before the crash. The Goldman Sachs vampires and their followers have already stashed all the cash. The traders are merely the vultures feeding on the carcasses of the working class whose widows are still gullible enough to listen to someone on BBC.
Oy Vey!
Surely downtrend strategies are priced in now? Have you *seen* the Eurostoxx skew? I’d short the hell out of every bank (including Goldmans) if I could, but I can’t pay that repo rate. Personally I would’ve preferred it if you had said “nothing, the Euro’s fucked” when asked what would satisfy the markets re the Eurozone. It’s facetious to say you don’t care if the Eurozone stabilises – of course you care, you bet against it.
This is evil in its most naked form. With all due respect, Mr. Rastini, you and your fellow traders do not contribute to society, you are not productive at all–you only take. I suspect that you actually employ all sorts of tactics to hasten the downfall of the markets and the euro, including spreading fear, something you did during the interview on BBC. This is really sad, because not everybody is obsessed with money and wants to spend their lives thinking only of money, but with your unscrupulous actions you actually contribute to taking away people’s livelihoods. This proves you have a lack of responsibility toward society.
Alessio, i saw your interview and thought it very scary from the point of view of my elderly mother and aunt. What should they do with their saving which are currently in UK banks to protect them. If they lost their modest enough savings they would suffer genuine hardship and as i recently lost my own job i am not in a position to help them out financially. Your advice would be greatly appreciated by me and many other ordinary people. Thank you.
Here’s a nice paradox for you:
Suppose we could ALL protect ourselves from the crash, what would happen then?
No-one would make any money from a crash, ergo it could simply not happen: everyone’s potential losses from the crashwould be compensated by their hedging strategy. We would simply all be a little bit poorer because of the cost of hedging, and the financial industry would be a little bit richer for processing all the transactions. In a growing economy, we can all get richer, but in a shrinking one, only a few can.
Now obviously we simply can not all protect ourselves from a crash, we need to find people who believe the opposite so they can pay the bill (the optimists). The more optimists there are relatively, the more money one can make in a crash. But too many optimists isn’t a good thing either, that will prevent a crash!
So, the best strategy is to hedge first and to spread fear afterwards (as I am sure you did). The only thing is that if it works too well and wealth gets very concentrated and unattainable for the masses, even Americans will become socialists.
Maybe in stead of betting on a crash we should start to make the real economy work better. Cutting overhead is a good place to start. There still is some excess overhead in government, but the real problem is the financial system that is overhead to the economy and adds much less value that government. The impact is huge: Q1 2011 US financial industry: 16% of corporate economic output, 32% of corporate profits (source BEA)
We should be able to reduce financial overhead to 5% without problems, and invest that money to generate a huge boom in the real economy. Policy makers will soon realize this and I would suggest not to bet against a crash in general, but indeed a crash of financials.
I expect actually some stocks might become a store of value when paper fiat currency devalue around the world. Perhaps the Brazilian Real and the Norwegian Krona will survive as they have real value. But a share in a global multi-national probably cyclical stock like J&J they make stuff, they have property and patents and intellectual property and machinery and represent value.
Hi, i like people who have a straight forward opinion.
Do you have a link to your trackrecord, of great ideas and results, plus faillures?
thanks
Victor
Great interview and well done for telling the truth – typical BBC reaction “Our jaws just dropped” – like they had no idea!
Oh my god Kate. I think this whole thing is taken out of context. Thanks for your comment.
i like it!!thanks
We all can make money from the changes in the world, change of legislation etc. But what exactly have you done besides talking?
Hi Allesio, I saw you on the BBC programme online and quickly googled you..Here I am. I am gonna add you to my favourites and check out this blog regularly…Looking forward to seeing future posts from you about how to ride the downward market…I am not at all playing the stock markets right now by the way…just a salaried guy in India. Thanks again! Cheers!!! “Governments dont rule the world, GoldmanSachs rules the world” I love it!!!
y la gente de la calle que podemos hacer??
cómo no perder nuestros ahorros??
qué hacemos con esos 30.000€ que tanto nos ha costado ahorrar? los metemos debajo del colchón?
Una trabajadora.
Bet you this is a Yes Men hoax.
Yeah, great interview! I think you said what a lot people are thinking…
Ok, I’m not completely bought by all hype just yet, I happen to despise our whole economic system and its lack of ethics. However, the truth is that we are in a bad state as a species. if you want to change the world for the better and really make a difference, well…unfortunately we may just have to play the game we hate so much and do a robin hood on those bankers- steal from the rich to give back to the poor. The wealth of others is going to be gambled by bankers anyway. So what do you think? Is it justifiable to trade in stocks for survival and helping your own impoverished communities out?
Ok, I’m not completely bought by all hype just yet, I happen to despise our whole economic system and its lack of ethics. However, the truth is that we are in a bad state as a species. if you want to change the world for the better and really make a difference, well…unfortunately we may just have to play the game we hate so much and do a robin hood on those bankers- steal from the rich to give back to the poor. The wealth of others is going to be gambled by bankers anyway. So what do you think? Is it justifiable to trade in stocks for survival and helping your own impoverished communities out? And who else is with me?
Just caught your interview over a very short lunch break (as you know working on a trade floor, lunches are pratically non-existant). I cannot get over the BBC newsreaders’ shock….did they really think the banking industry didn’t take advantage of bear markets or indeed a recession. If we didn’t there wouldn’t be an economy at all. Lest they forget the more money the Bank are making, the more tax the Government receives…
Bravo for speaking out! 🙂
I totally agree with what I have read about your opinions so far.
From 2002-2007 I did very well on the equities. Every set of published accounts banged on about fear fear fear in the wake of 9-11 and the Iraq invasion but neither Iraq nor the events of 9-11 had any real impact on the overall world economy and I knew thus that the downturn in values was fake and ploughed in.
By late 2007 early 2008 it was obvious that a crash was coming so I sold up and went into cash getting good medium term fixed rates of interest at the time.
I’ve been negative about the markets ever since so I missed the 2009 bounce back but never really believed in it to be honest.
So I can predict the markets quite well but I don’t know how to make money from a falling market care to tell me?
John.
Hilarious! Alessio, since you seem like the sort of person than can accept a solid tip at face value, I’ll offer you my strategy for coming out on top during times of financial instability: methamphetamine. It’s truly a recession-proof industry, no matter how far the markets fall the demand for quality meth just goes up up up. I swell with pride to see the drive and determination of my customers, somehow they always manage to find the money no matter how poorly the global economy fares. The bar for entry is low, the profit margins are high and the audience is literally addicted to your services. In case you’re considering an investment, let me offer you this pearl of wisdom: you’ll make more money selling pure meth to x customers than you will selling 50% cut meth to x*2 customers. It may be tempting to cut but Alessio, I’m serious here, the market favours a quality product; cutting is a false economy and you abuse the trust of your customer base. Offer only the finest product and be proud of the service you provide – distinguish yourself from the lesser traders and give your customers a reason to come back to you.
Godspeed Alessio, I wish you every success in the lucrative and fulfilling business of methamphetamine distribution.
We are in the hands of thieves, thugs, liars like you
And you just managed to prove what some have been thinking all along, there has been a concerted attack on the euro, just so you can make money.
Who cares if this sends millions of people in Europe into extreme poverty?
You’re a thief, a thug, and you have absolutely no values.
I f I were you I would be really ashamed of myself
You Sir are brilliant. That interview is just what the bloated hedge sitters of this decrepid country need. Arm chair political analysts will shout and shout till they’re blue in the face to be heard over this, but hot wind production is all they do in life, best ignored. I myself as a common working class chap, starting out in business applaud you and you’re outlook. I see nothing wrong with what you’ve said at all. People cant handle the truth, they blindly follow our, ahem, “leaders” like sheep. We’ll see who’s laughing in 12 months.
Thankyou again, for your fantastic interview, can you come run our country please?? 😉
WB01.
Hey Alessio,
thanks for this nice blog. Just wondering whether you can recommend some books or websites for hedging strategies! Thanks for your afford.
Cheers,
Hubertus
Pure wisdom from Charles which I’m reposting for those who missed it –
Alessio,
I sense you’ve failed to account for one variable, which is large scale social and geo-political unrest in the event of collapse. In 1930, the world carried just shy of 2 billion people many of whom lived off the land or knew trades that enabled them to survive in the midst of profound scarcity. We had untapped resources back then and just needed systems in place to employ labor to access and transform those resources into usable goods. The per-capita share of untapped resources has declined because the global population has more than tripled, and what is left is seriously depleted.
By 1960 the US carried 180 million, and now that population has nearly doubled. The UK has grown from 50 Mil to over 60 mil in the same period. Most of the world is now metropolitan and lacks skills necessary for survival (agriculture, industry) in the midst of spreading monetary and market crisis.
When a currency no longer serves a population that currency has no value. How then are you going to make profit in the midst of massive upheaval? The depression was orderly. This will not be.
1930 is not a map for today, that paradigm is dead and so are its markets. Will you invest in a future that leaves us safe, fed and healthy?
_________________________________________________________________________
Personally I think it IS ‘the end of the world as we know it’ – the end of global capitalism, and probably of much of civil society, not just another stock market collapse. Following what worked in the past won’t serve us now. Nor will the old values of ‘money is King’. Without the basic structures of civil society nobody has the safety or opportunity to enjoy their money. Money will no longer even seem to make one happy. Now there’s a paradigm shift.
My feeling is that you are sincere Alessio, and want to be a ‘good guy’ and be liked – your real failing is naivety. Naivety about what what you are doing, and about what will really make you happy on your deathbed. It won’t be that you made a killing from this recession and ‘learnt from 2008’. NOONE has a heart filled with joy when they die about having made a pile of money. It is never, ever, what turns out to be what matters. If you were really smart, you’d think just a *little* bit about that. Don’t put all your eggs into the money basket. Learn from the men who walked that path only to have the scales fall from their eyes in later years.
And for those who want a wild card – learn how to jump time lines. You will need an incredibly open mind. Google ‘Bashar Youtube 2012’ and listen to some clips; google ‘Tom Kenyon Hathors jumping time lines’. There’s plenty of information out there. None of it frm this world. If you *really* don’t want to be a victim – invest in your consciousness and learn how to change your reality, radically. Abraham-Hicks have endless information on how to create a different reality for yourselves. The Mayans were trying to tell us something with their calendar that ends in 2012. That timeline ends there – but another can be accessed. This is the most useful information anyone can have in these times – how to use your mind to shift realities. That’s where I’ll be focusing my energies. Everything else is just an investment in fear, and as Bashar says, you end up in the reality that you endlessly prepare for.
Whatever strategy you choose, good luck to us all.
Nice to hear an alternative opinion, although I don’t quite think its as doomsday as Alessio makes it, but a Greek default is going to have a nasty afect on the markets.
I for one am ready with my FTSE short and I hold minimal stocks,
But certainly at the moment there is FAR MORE downside to the markets than upside
If you don’t believe me (you are stupid) but then you must believe the U.S. Government as quoted by the Financial Times:
“The US government, in recent court filings, contends Stars was a highly complex tax shelter transaction used by the American banks to generate foreign tax credits. In court papers, government lawyers allege that BB&T and Wells Fargo deals were a “sham”. In Wells Fargo’s case, they assert Stars was designed so that the US bank’s “entire economic profit would be totally and exclusively sourced from US foreign tax credits”. Wells Fargo, in court papers, says its deal was a lawful reduced-cost loan.”
Let me be absolutely clear, nothing in this post is untrue and no one is being threatened, the only thing any of you dopes have to fear is KPMG itself (and the U.S. Government when KPMG gets done lying to the Feds about you).
Wells Fargo & Company Annual Report 2010
I completely agree with you. The crisis is getting poor coverage in the UK generally. Nobody really seems to be telling it like it is and giving information that would help the average person, who has never gone outside the usual savings instruments before, but now begins to realise that they may no longer be trustworthy. Do people even realise there could be runs on banks down the line? I’m new to your site, heard you on the World Service last night.
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I have never played the stock market but I am interested in making money from this next crash.
Would you be able to point me in the right direction in the strategies needed to make the most of this opportunity.
Many thanks
Nobody truly knows whether the markets will crash or whether these debt-ridden bandaids will have the markets rally to new highs and beyond.
If they do, well that means great opportunity to go short at higher prices.
Regarding the earlier reference to Warren Buffet – yes, the greedy/fearful methodology is partially what makes a great investor/trader. However, he was recently named the biggest money loser on the Forbes 400 and now Berkshire Hathaway is buying back shares (generally not a good sign.) Granted, some of that money was given away.
And if you want to follow that methodology, the best thing to do now is nothing but prepare. Therefore, gain an understanding of world economics and position yourself to take advantage of a potential huge crash.
Then, when the markets rally because everyone thinks the problem is fixes and they get GREEDY and start buying, you can go short with ETFs such as FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA, and their non leveraged counter parts. Fast forward… markets crash, these leveraged ETFs are up a few hundred percent so you cash out and buy beaten down shares.
Options can be used to implement various strategies which can minimize risk yet still allow one to take advantage of market swings. Be aware of time decay and volatility however.
I’m not sure yet what is my opinion of your interview this morning, I’m thinking about it but little part of me think that you’re doing advertising of your bussines, HOW TO WIN MONEY WITH THE RECESSION? COME WITH ME, IF YOU PAY, I CAN TELL YOU.. u know? Sorry for my english. Salutes from Spain.
Great interview, hoax or not, but if it was, do you work for the ECB? LMAO
What Alessio said is said in private all the time, he was just being honest which I appreciate. Why are people surprised by his admission that he’s been dreaming for a market crash for years? There must be hundreds like him and you were a stock trader you would probably dream for a Crash too. It’s just the nature of the game. So don’t blame the player, like the cliche says. You were awesome, and thanks for opening our collective eyes, Alessio.
Cheers,
Hey Alessio,
Refreshingly frank interview and yes, the reaction has been totally sensationalised and taken out of context.
It might be an idea to publish more material on the mechanics of how people can benefit from a recession. I mean, an interview is great but you can really capitalise on it by shipping some actionable information.
So, for instance, how can someone like me who watched the interview and found your website, and with no background in trading, take practical steps to benefit?
Dear Alessio,
It’s a very good post, really, and thanks for what you said on BBC.
But i have a question for you.
To win this war against the Big Money, what the governments of the world can do? Really… so, now you can tell us, came on..
Tell me a good law please!
Your, David Cameron.
This is for all those people dumping on Alessio:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bbc-releases-official-statement-alessio-trader-rastani-he-perfectly-legit-and-interview-was-not
Congrats on grabbing the limelight Alessio.
Hopefully you’re not a “one hit wonder”, and you’ll have more insight to contribute to the economic collapse as it unfolds.
Cheers,
-Blair
The point is that: you don´t care about the people which DOES NOT make money in depression or recession times. That´s why you have been called all that you have been called after your minut of glory in the BBC. It is not about “you want to take profit of market´s crash, then you are a bad guy”, but more about “you don´t care that millions of people get in poverty if you get rich with it, then you are a bad guy”. And if you really think that, if you really would get rich knowing that because of it millions of people are getting poor at the same time, then yeah, then you are just a pig, and the rest of the people that thinks like you are the pigs of the world, the cancer that you mentionated in the BBC is you and the people like you.
That´s what I think
I’m not completely bought by all this hype just yet, I happen to despise our whole economic system and its lack of ethics. However, the truth is that we are in a bad state as a species. if you want to change the world for the better and really make a difference, well…unfortunately we may just have to play the game we hate so much and do a robin hood on those bankers- steal from the rich to give back to the poor. The wealth of others is going to be gambled by bankers anyway. So what do you think? Is it justifiable to trade in stocks for survival, helping your own impoverished communities out?- It may just be the only way to make a real difference. Who’s with me?
Well going short is a lot harder for newb’s,then going long..so this should be fun taking them out…most of them don’t have the right data feed or a fast network…lots of candy for me to feed on…because I don’t care
You know, you are going to make more money from that BBC interview than you ever made on trading…….you’ll now be famous forever, give it a couple of days to make it around the world, but you will be famous! Good on you for telling the truth.
How do I get started as an independant invester on the stock market?
Hi Alessio,
I saw your interview with the BBC after a friend of mine posted it on FB, and while I don’t agree with you, I have to applaud your brutal honesty and speaking the truth. I’m in Canada and while our banking system is actually more conservative that those found in the US and Britain and we’ve actually come out ahead among G8 countries with this economic downturn which has spread worldwide. My friends in Australia tell me the same thing about their country’s economy.
You had mentioned in the interview that money is now moving to safer havens, like out of Europe and back into the US dollar, part of the reason why the Canadian dollar has skyrocked in that money is moving here too.
What would you suggest to someone who has never traded before? Doesn’t know about the first thing about markets and trading? Who is basically living paycheck to paycheck – it would seem if everyone can make money from this upcoming economic downturn, then many people can also benefit from the nuts and bolts kind of information and tips that someone like yourself is privy to. Where to start?
Lots of applause (and re-postins of your BBC interview), Allesio! It’s fairly funny, the shock and the indignation the interview elicited – they should be giving you a medal, rather.
Like many people following your site, I am a novice trader, still trading in paper money on the /ES, having recently made the beginnings of a breakthrough in the Trading Discipline and Risk Management areas. I agree wholeheartedly with your statement that “To be successful in trading or investing, firstly you need to employ a written trading plan based on a PROVEN STRATEGY,” and I’ve recently begun statistically testing my first simple strategy (while I work on learning how to backtest in ThinkOrSwim).
Two questions for you: First, “what’s next for me”? Is there a “next comes the [XXX] phase” kind of answer to this? Or will be as it’s been – finding my way slowly and surely? And next, How did you find people to trade with, and/or mentors? I really feel as though “the student is ready,” as the saying goes – and if the teacher doesn’t just appear, I’m willing to go out and find them… but I’d appreciate any words of experience here.
Thanks again for the honesty – Mark
Great video, it went viral. Now they are trying to peg you as a hoax. WOW, your on there hit list now lol
Great interview, worth watching to see the news reporters reaction – priceless.
I’ve been expecting more buzz from this.
I’ve spent the day weighing up the pros and cons of the argument, since watching the interview on the BBC. And I’ve come to the conclusion that you’re a fucking cunt and I hope you die soon. Cheerio!
Hi Alessio,
Thanks for all that info. Was really good to hear a genuine and probably quite accurate opinion on the news for once! Im keen on starting to get into trading as a part time thing (to begin with at least!) Do you think you could give me some pointers on where to start? And more importantly some tactics on how to trade in a downward market like your previous trading plans? If you could email me (alexlover8@hotmail.com) the info that would be massively appreciated!
Big fan!
Regards and best of luck in the future!
The Market is impossible to predict. Anyone who thinks they can predict the twists and turns needs to have very deep pockets eg GS. Otherwise it’s a foos gamel and you will lose your shirt. Jesse Livermore died broke.
Are we in deflation or stagflation? Currency gyrations are what is driving indices. The underlying assets are worth what they were yesterday. A dealer values my second car at $5000 and sells the same car in his forecourt for $20000. There are property sales with valuations that range from $4000 – $6000 / sq m in the same area. It is the cost of raw materials and their linkage to currency that is driving valuations. The government is stealth taxing everyone through currency devaluations eg quantitative easing. Your savings are getting diluted. You cannot sell your assets. There is job insecurity. Salaries are frozen. And yet we have huge inflation.
I cannot see how we can interpret the current situation as deflationary. It looks like stagflation similar to 70s.
And I forgot to say … Really funny interview with the BBC. They crapped it! The masses and tree buggers were in uproar. How could you profit from Thule. You mulst be evil! I say get a life. The Market is their for all to participate. You make your bets and you makes your profits or losses. There is no easy money to be made out there. Although the last month had been phenomenal. Even if you do not short the Market, taking long positions at key price levels and exiting to cash has been amazing. With financial, insurance and oil stocks. What is more, I don’t care about the news flow, it’s all based on technical analysis. Nice site and all the best dude.
Good job Alessio!
Now that you made it to the Yahoo home page you are probably today’s most famous trader in the world.
I don’t necessarily share your views but.. keep it up, I am sure you are doing much better than me.
Yep, agree with the above comment. It seems to me that the money-makers in this world who live a shadowy existence call the shots, not our government. I will read through your articles with keen interest. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight!!!
Truth on Television, that usually causes some jaw dropping, followed by mindless banter and crumpets.
Well done.
Not sure Jesse Livermore is the best success example, bankrupt by 1934, kills self in 1940
Dear Alessio, I’m a trader too and your sentence about “dreaming a recession” is simply sick and an insult to yourself. As human being I feel responsabile for others, there is more than do money to any cost. If the goal is to make easily without caring for the consequences you should rob a bank, in some way you would be less cynic (and coward) than dreaming at night a disgrace for million of people for you own benefit.
Best Regards
Dude, I’ve seen your declarations on TV. You are famous right now! Maybe it’s your strategy to get some bucks 🙂 Anyway, the only thing I guess is you unstabilized, unbalanced the markets more than the shock in 2008 but not in therms of economy. People will be mad with banks more than ever. It was your strategy?
At least you’ve got people talking. Well done! How did you get past BBC screening? Well done again! And is your name an anagram of Ass Realisation?
This guy Alessio Rastani is just a sad wannabe fake. I am amazed that anyone would even consider taking him seriously :
‘Trading is a like a hobby. It is not a business. I am a talker. I talk a lot. I love the whole idea of public speaking.’ his words to the Telegraph newspaper that exposes him as a failing business man who can’t even afford a mortgage. Would you really take advice from this person (link below)?
The BBC ‘interview’ was a complete farce but now this man is trying to profit from it. He does not represent any real traders. From someone who does actually work in the financial markets as a professional and does actually have qualifications and experience: see this fool for what he is, have a laugh at him, and then take your money and walk the other way quickly. He may be stupid but is also potentially dangerous should he get a hold of any of your money, or even time for that matter.
Telegraph article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html
Odd that you a) quote Warren Buffett, as close to the opposite of a day trader you could find and a man whose core investment beliefs are based on fundamentals not technicals and b) use this particular quotation of his, which implies that the current fear that is driving force behind recent market moves is actually a huge opportunity to go LONG high quality companies. Oh yeah, that’s right, he has.
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I found the interview both entertaining and informative. Thank you for going out on a limb and telling the world what they probably don’t want to hear – but must, if they’re to prepare for any future economic crises. Cheers from Australia.
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Maurits, I agree that in a shrinking economy only a few can benefit – but the real kicker is this – In a growing economy it is also true that only a few will benefit.
The reason is that trading bits of paper, storing wealth digitally, and seeing investment rise are all an illusion. The reality is that in a growing market many people perceive that they have wealth – high property prices, lots of cheap credit, lots of black numbers on investment balance statements – but it’s not real. You nailed it with you first comment – if everyone does the same thing, the ‘profit’ vanishes. To your point, if everyone tried to cash in their profitable ‘investments’ at the same time, the value would instantly crash, and only a few would ever see the wealth materialise.
So whichever way the stock market (economy proxy) moves, only a few will ever really make the big bucks.
When you pull back the curtain, you can see the stock market for what it really is; a mass cash extraction system – it extracts the cash from many people and puts it into the pockets of a few. Simple math tells that you only gain when someone else loses…. just like the lottery. Going up or down doesn’t really matter – other than the high volatility creates far better opportunities to extract more cash….
My advice would be, if you don’t understand it, don’t play it.
Alessio, I thought your interview was amazing. Very funny – well done!
Awesome interview.. planning on converting my assets into cash now, then buying up some T-Bills. Same for 401k?
15 mins of fame is all u need these days get a good agent and make tons of monies
i can understand what you are saying, however sir, wishing for a recession is as selfish as hell. Wishig every night for a recession is like wishing that thousands of poeple become poor, homeless, hopeless. You sir, you are the biggest example of why capitalism should disapear. Money , that is all that is filling your heart. If recession comes, i wish you loose everything, we’ll see if you will still “dream” about it.
gee, you got popular quickly….
I appreciate your perspective on things. I look forward to following your blog – thanks!
A talk like “Why I Pray For Another Recession” isn’t such a big deal to those who is in the market long enough understands what you are saying, just not admitting.
However, a follow up post like “Why I Pray For Another Recession – And what you (or I) can/should do” should built your (“moral”) reputation with those new to the markets (aka we, the small people, rather then the big fish), since they then will know what you really mean.
Show them the way, they will appreciate the situation and you more.
Hey – my 2 year old nephew is having a birthday party next week. I’d like to invite you and all your dim witted followers to come along. There will be face painting and pony rides. Oh….and please feel free to make a speech – they love clowns. Stick around…I’m thinking of playing “Stick The Tail On The Moron”. Seriously, go and start a cult in the desert somewhere and leave trading to the grown-ups.
Is it possible that traders do what they can to create a situation where a Market crash becomes imminent?
thank for the nice interview .
i need more knowledge but i will try to take action.
best
fiorenzo
GS will soon be toast. As you sow, so shall you reap.
This is all really vague ‘advice’ about how to profit from these conditions. Specifics would have been helpful if you’re trying to help people. All cash? Gold?
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Well said Alessio!
Seems like plain simple truth. Think some are aghast at the idea that going up the stairs is the “right” thing
to do. Like you said it’s faster and more fun to slide down the bannister.
Sav
As mentioned for some time, the SP500 big picture remains bearish and despite market intervention the March 2009 lows unfortunately will be breached.
My long term indicators have continued to warn of USD strength and EURO weakness and these signals have increased since 2009. The overdue dollar rally should be substantial.
Long term charts at blog.
Be careful folks.
Hi Alessio,
Yes we should have a BIG recession and so on ( crash of the euro, the Banks, the $ ? )…
But it seems to me that the Governments do not want that happens ; probably because if they let it happens it will be “game over” ( in a recession, what has been hidden will become more visible… ) and above all the globalized world also.
So, I have also the idea to be short the US market ( Put on the S&P… ) but what if the Governments come up with an huge QExx ? Very probably the markets will go up a lot and I will have lost money !
PHILIP
OK, we all know that brokers and investors just care about making money, that is not a surprise. We also know that crisis are a time of opportunity for those who know where to invest. However, saying that you go to sleep dreaming on a crisis, with a smile that reminds of a child waiting for Santa Claus, seems a bit immoral. Maybe if you had lost your job, your house, or your children would not be able to afford college or healthcare, you would think twice before talking. Or maybe, because the world is no longer ruled by governments but by heartless corporations, some people can have fun enjoying a disastrous view. I would like to know how much money a teacher or a nurse can invest in protecting they assets when they have extremely low salaries. And what about those who lost their jobs? Well, you do not seem to be talking to those people.
Folks, Alessio is spot on and knows his stuff.
However, what he failed to mention was that to succeed in trading you need IMMENSE discipline, persistence, hard work, courage, practice and experience all of which takes years and years, eventually you need a methodical approach to eliminate fear and greed otherwise its gambling.
You may just make some money from the recession, but it will take it all back from you when your ego gets in the way…hence why it is not a game for 90% of the population.
How long have you been trading Alessio?
Just so you know…
There’s an article that says you’re not who you say you are…
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/09/27/alessio-rastani-hoax-on-bbc_n_983156.html
What is the best way for the everyday average Jane, like me, to get started in this? I am 26 and going back to school for an International Business degree with concentration in Accounting and Finance but with the way that everything is going I don’t think I or anybody else has 3 years to wait to get started or learn how to do this. I do have savings in the bank but from what I understand that really isn’t the best place to keep them especially with what will more then likely come in the next 12 months. So how do I start and where do I go? I would like to at least have a foot in the door in this before everything goes down the drain and have myself protected. Btw, I’m going to a foreign school in Ireland, which I know is in Europe and I’m fully aware of the fact that the Euro is in HUGE trouble. I’ve been watching what has been going on over there and over here like a hawk. I am in a relationship with a man from there and I want to be protected as much as possible with all the worst case scenarios that could happen. That being if I have to go immediately to the airport, I can hop on a plane and get home and some how bring my partner with me. I know the worst thing to do in these times is to panic but it is really hard not to when you see what is happening in the news every single day and only having a very very small understanding of what is looming in the not too distant future. Your help and advice is much appreciated. Thank you.
One advice for you Alessio: Don’t worry what other people think or say about you. Tell the truth and move forward.
The Greek Constant, great comment.
Hi,
Great interview. It’s really rear to see people as honest as you are especially in these volatile market that we are facing these years. I totally agree with you because for me no matter how I look at it the fundamentals of the western market is on a very shaky ground.
“Governments don’t rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world.”
Thank you and have a great day.
Hi, was sent your BBC interview by a friend, loved your straight talk and would like to learn more about being trained by you. Always dreamt of trading, but never found the person who I felt could teach me, till now.
If what you wish comes through it might very well end in a disastrous global economic depression, not unlike the one in the 1930s. Your potential profits might turn out to be -short lived because its fiat paper money and the whole global monetary system that is at stake. The only ones who actually became rich during the Great Depression were the guys with the guts to venture into their own business, like FedEx, UTX, GM, GE. The question you have to ask yourself is do you have what it takes to buid your own successful bussines. Its different from writing a blog though.
Jesse Livermore died broke and as apoor man hounted by legal battles resulting from his dubious stock market activities.
“This is evil in its most naked form. With all due respect, Mr. Rastini, you and your fellow traders do not contribute to society……”
Paul Arnolds, your rudeness is only matched by your ignorance of stock markets. How do you think successful businesses are going to attract funding to grow? The activities of investors and traders identify winners, and ensures the efficient flow of capital to these enterprises. I would suggest that this is a valuable service to society.
Surely you cannot support alternatives like crony capitalism and socialistic central planning as exemplified by the recent $535M tax payer loss in the bankrupt Solyndra, or the farcical Volt electric car that nobody wants to buy, manufactured by Government Motors using tax payer bailout money and tax payer subsidies?
I wonder if you have contributed to the growth of your economy as much as those were prepared to risk their wealth on the stock markets over the last two centuries?
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Alessio,
A great job, truth on the BBC is as rare as hen’s teeth!
Hi! I am a spanish journalist. I work for chanel 5. We reproduce your BBC interview. I need to know if you are a trader or not. It is very important because BBC insists that you are but The telegraph publish you are not. Can we talk with you? Can you give me your telephone number?
my email
blancagost@yahoo.com
Alessio,
You unquestionably argue a valid and well addressed point in this article.
Some people will however not be able to ride out the trend.
For me, a layman to the financial markets, can you suggest any methods of ensuring you choose the right investment?
Brilliant! Some people hated your comments – and only because of fear. Fear of their own ignorance.
Keep it up.
I find the unpleasantness and delusion of some of the comentators particularly interesting with regards to gaining from someone elses misery. how do they think that we maintain the standard of living that we have in the west if not through expolitation and profit from misery of people from other parts of the world. it appears that exploitation and profit is okay if we can’t see it but if it happens to threaten the safety of our bubble then it is wrong?
heard the very end of your interview on bbc world service radio and wanted to check you out. you sounded passionate, honest..having read the blog i fear now that you are just another cramer, blowing your own horn, rounding up paying suckers who will attempt to translate your gibberish into their private fortunes. not as bad as guys who promise possible (promise possible!)returns of 337% (this specificity always gives me a chuckle) but making money off others rather than any coherent trading program. i plan to check the stock gumshoe see if he has done anything on you and your projections. hey, i could be wrong but i do not apologize; you put yourself out in the fray; you take your chances..
The long term trend for equities is very bearish and it’s a pity more investors are not aware of this.
Be careful folks.
I loved your BBC clip, and just got done reading both Dmitri Orlov’s _Reinventing Collapse_, which scared me, and John Michael Greer’s _Wealth of Nature_: Economics as if Survival Mattered_, which is getting me hopeful again, and which I think might be the best book of the decade.
I’d love to hear what you think of _Wealth of Nature_; both books, really.
You might enjoy works by the Standup Economist:
http://www.ethicalmarkets.tv/archives/category/comedy
Brian
It is a big part of truth what are you writting. It is a kind of one-sided text. It doesn’t mean that you haven’t right. Now the financial market users are able to earn in every type of condition on the market and ecenomy, that’s what ia all about.
Ratbone – Thanks for your comment. In case you haven’t noticed I am not selling anything. I would be happy to teach a lot of stuff for free. This stuff should be available to everyone. By the way, Cramer just had a bad day. Cheers.
Blanca – I am am a trader. And BBC is correct. telegraph, which is a newspaper I respect, unfortunately misquoted me. I said I like public speaking because of the attention I get when I am teaching (and who wouldn’t). But I speak the truth.
thank you so much
I would not believe whatever you read in the papers mike.
Alessio, I quite agree with your opinion on making the most profit when the market is down-turning. However, this must be approached with a many words of caution; for the big players, it could be easier as they hedge along. For the small fries, it could further endanger thier chances.
When I was in Amsterdam in Spring around April, I fiddled a little with currency trading and got some losses. The saving grace I had was adopting a style similar to what you implied. I quickly sell all my holdings when I read a downward trend and sold above my limit after obtaing approvals from my brokes. 3-weeks later, the prices have gone even worse; I started to buy back to cover my positions. Summarily, I sold a bit high (somewhere half of what I started the market with) and bought back when it was less than 20% of outlays……
So what to do? What does the average, working every day, mortgage having, 40-70k a year salary family do to prepare? What would you do if you had, say $10,000 to move around? Where would you move it?
I realize that’s small potatoes compared to what you trade, but I think it’s a safe average of people who may be reading your stuff.
Specifically, what steps would you advise folks like us to take?
how could we foresee or say exactly that the downturn of two years, is starting from now or from this point, is it like the comment made afterward ? the trend might have reversed earlier.
guide something for the market where there is not short selling provision, like in my country Nepal and i do not have owned some already.
I read about you in an article published today in a business newspaper from Spain. I always thought the same about taking advantages during recessions, although I beleive now a days is way more difficult than it was during the 30s….apart from the stock market which other type of invesment you consider to be profitable during a recession ???
OK, so how do people “protect their assets” and make money off of a depression? Buy physical precious metals? Treasury bond funds? Pull out of the stock market and sink the money into ……. ? I don’t know much about financial matters.
Hi,
I think it is perfectly correct what you are saying. And i think if the system is there why not use it. I can however understand how many do not understand how you make money when prices are going down.
I do however believe you have the opportunity today to explain the world in simple words how it is done.
I can come up with a link instantly
http://www.marketcalls.in/analysis/short-selling-explained-in-simple-terms.html
To be honest I’m not sure why you have gotten so much stick for saying what you did. People have been saying this for a long time, investors have even said this before on the BBC ‘Hardtalk’ program. I believe you, I think it is only a matter of time.
That said I have no clue how to prepare for this, or how to take advantage of it.
-what should I do with my money
-what should I be doing to take advantage of the downturn
etc
Hopefully you can put up some articles in the very near future about this.
Hi Alessio,
Just watched your interview and read through lots of these posts. They say timing is everything…I have been thinking there must be some way to capitalize on this current market. I just wasn’t sure how to go about it. I am a thorough researcher, so I will likely not make enough moves in time to really make the best of this situation. But I’d like to read more about what you think is the best first step.
Thanks,
Trish
Agree with you and congrats on making nice promotion of yrself.
So Alessio,
interessting point of view. So please teach us how to “use” an upcoming recession.
Regards, Oli
I’ve been through the Asian Financial Crisis in 97/98, i know what you mean.
I just have a question:
how can u live with yourself?
how does it feel beeing such an inmoral person?
Who can love u?
I really hope that everything that u did to get money, will go against u someday and u will know what is that someone else decides for your future.
Good luck!!
You should consider the possibilty of to go under tratement of a good psychiatrist !
I would not believe whatever you hear from a guy with a pink tie on, Alessio.
Hi Alessio,
I agree with everything you said in the interview. It may sound callous but i don’t think your intentions were bad – you just were telling people to prepare for the down trend.
I do have a question however that I don’t think you’ve addressed in your posts nor in the interview – HOW does the everyday person profit during a down period? Most people follow the typical old school advice of hanging on and not selling for the long-term….I think this advice is bad. So when the market goes down – what specifically should we have our money in to profit?
Obviously you’re serious business. I’m new at all of this, with very little experience, but very impressed none the less, and I find your candor inspiring.
It is most unfortunate that some media has resorted to ad hominem attacks on Alessio Rastani himself rather than discuss his honest but somewhat brutal appraisal of the markets.
(I do not know him at all)
I myself, have been warning people of what lay ahead since *2006* and I do not like to see naive investors losing all their money due to poor financial ‘advice’
2 long term charts:
stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/2011-01-15_sp500-mth.png
stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/2011-08-09_sp500_mth_x.png
Marga – thanks for your comment. As you’ll find out, I am not an immoral person at all. take care.
97/98 – that is a long time. Herbie
I am no self-promoter piotr. It just turned out that way. thanks
I think you are wrong.
Actually what will happen is a massive crash in Europe around November/December (Greece default) that will have the consequence to boost the USD and Wall Street. The markets are going to bump huge time, I am sure you know it and you are prepared lol. Buy USD 😉
Now how this will be handled afterward, is impossible to predict.
You are a hack and a fraud…and probably a terrorist – I understand that your parents are in Iran.
everyone has their truth. you had your chance to tell yours, alessio. on a grand stage. the bbc. what did you say? absolutely nothing truly revealing. more of a patchwork of statements long made before by others. why does it upset so much? because statements that are in public awareness, aggregated at the right moment and wrapped into a neat package become (objective) truth that makes people believe in what you state. i do hope though these new-believers of yours will neither invest with you nor the goldmans 🙂 overall “chapeau”to you though. you showed chuzpa. turn to politics, alessio, seems a good turf for you!
“Future doesn’t belong to us, we only borrow it from our children” (Antoine de Saint-Exupéry). Making money on world driven to bankrupcy by traders as you is an absolute forgery and an insult to people making money working and not gambling.
Do you really believe that saying what you say on TV we don’t know and that it might exonerate your own liability ?
You need baker and entrepreneurs prosperous from their work and actual valuation of risks taking, to survive.
Think of it nobody can be making a nice living in a general collapse of economy;
Well read it and don’t publish it : I do not care because before cancelling this comment you will have read it.
Nice interview and nice blog. Most people dont get what all this is about – like you said in forbes, thats not new news – but people dont like beeing told how it works – also goldman – sax doesnt like if everbody knows about them 🙂
Would like to invite you as an author on our site:
http://www.bostonwealth.net/become-an-author/
We share your viewpoint as well…
Here Examining the past – Déjà vu Again?!
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2011/09/24/18958/
Alessio I applaud your honesty. I appreciate the fact that you tried to do people a service by warning them and advising them to prepare, while their supposed leaders are doing the opposite. I am old enough to be your Dad and it is easy to see from your interviews that you are a decent and kind person. They don’t wish each other luck in the S.A.S. and you won’t need it either.
All the best,
Rick
Well done for saying what a lot of us know but can’t tell others.
Bravo Alessio! Yes, all what you have said is very true. I really enjoyed your BBC appearance. Keep up the good work!
Hi.you are like vito corleone.ar you doing a financial crime.
I think you are completely wrong. People aren’t going to lose their entire savings within the next 12 months. They are gonna lose their entire savings within the next 6 months.
Congratulations for telling it like it is ! A rarity on TV these days (except for Hugh Hendry who other stock market types seem to hate for some reason). You should get back on the BBC or CNBC and get a longer slot, but you would make yourself pretty unpopular with the establishment and people who think stockmarket traders are trying to make the world a better place !
Gottcha. Yes. I knew Goldman Sachs ruled the world when their former CEO, Henry Paulson, as Treasury Secretary of the USA, threw Lehmans to the wolves because he hated his arch-enemy, their CEO. And that’s what almost brought down the world economy in 2008. What a nasty little boy. Yes. You are correct.
Alessio, I think your interview on BBC is a breath of fresh air. Finally somebody is telling the truth. The ones whose “jaws dropped” were deep asleep and have just been woken-up. Good morning to them.
Now my question is how “laymen” like me, with only basic understanding of economics can take advantage of this situation. Any advise, tips or pointers to source of info?
Thanks again.
Fabrizio
Alessio Rastani: Rogue Trader or Prophet of Doom ?
http://mediolana.wordpress.com/2011/09/28/alessio-rastani-rogue-trader-or-prophet-of-doom
Thank you Fabrizio. I will keep you posted.
thanks for your comment.
Well, let’s hope not. But thanks for your input.
Thank you – I will consider it.
I am not into censorship Jean. Thanks for your comment.
Hey Alessio and congrats on the interview on BBC.
Just a quick question, could you give us a little more information on “how to make money in a downwards market”? Do you mean wait for the stock to reach it’s lowest point and then buy, and wait for it to go up or do you mean to Short it??
Alessio, what you’ve mentioned on the BBC and on your blogs is the hard truth. I fully agree with your statements. There’s going to people out there that are to scared to handle the truth, that will call you a self promoter etc, dont pay attention to them. I applaud your honesty.Like Warren Buffett said:Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. This is the motto i stand by.This is the perfect opportunity to short the market.
Allessio im impresed by the way you express your opinion about the financial crisis. To be honest i feel uncomfortable of what you say that will happen sooner or later to the depositors.
I live in Greece which is one of the countries that face part of all this crisis and im thinking that there is no way out of this without major consequencies for the people.But you have to admit that you express your ideas with big “ego” and ironic mood. Like that you dont care about anhthing else but your pocket.Sooner or later you will face problems too. You mentioned GOLMAN SAHS that rule the world. Are you mad;; This guys can eliminate you before you say hi. Be carefull my friend. Dont say things that will regret. IT IS AN ADVICE FROM A FRIEND.
THANKS
KEEP THE GOOD TRADE
Alessio we share the same dream brother, may we make billions in the crashes and billions in the bull runs, god bless us.
Mr. Rastani,
I think all traders can see parts of their own mentality in your statements. The context of your words here are the essence and typically, people who never make it past the first paragraphs will also never make it through their first year as a trader. It takes guts to speak up and I suppose the attention you generated is your reward? 😉
The different strategies for making money in these times are decribed in many places online. I added one link on my blog to some information about short selling, but there are literaly millions of sources to information. I am describing my view further / answering on this blogpost in my own blog. If you are reading this comment before you read the whole blog post, go back and read it. If you already did, then educate yourself and prepare to put in hard work to earn money, both in bull and bear markets.
All the best,
Matias Johannessen
catkain.blogspot.com
His interview on BBC reminds me somehow of a scene from Scarface – we all know what happens to bad guys Alessio 😉
Just not cool! – for a “professional” speaker you probably did not get your maths right on your target audience.
I’m sure the banking industry will get more “fan” mail as a consequence.
Ah lol.. The only people praising you in those comments my dear are those who are dying to make money of you 😀 Just like my cat loves me most when am about to give her some food 😀
Must be fun up there, all alone and completely delusional!
I will most certainly google your name in 10 years time to see whereabouts did you crash.
But in any case, who are we to judge one another, i am no angel myself!
Ciao ciao!
hi Alessio, there’s one thing i still don’t understand ; if GS rule the world , and of course GS sells “CDS” (credit default swap) , if eventually the greece will default and other countries as well; how on earth can GS cope with that huge amount of money?
tnx in advance,
Chris
Alessio, I see the BBC have invited Geraint Anderson to comment on your interview – I’m sure you’ll understand why that is so hilarious!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15095191
Best wishes and keep safe
Well done for telling it like it is. I know people don’t like it and don’t want to face it, but politicians’ speeches are sugarcoated. You have shocked but also woken up. and that is refreshing. Thank you for this. The truth ruth is rather ugly indeed but that’s still the truth.
Right, so now: WHERE is your upcoming post about showing us principles about HOW to make money on a downward trend ?
you woke us up, you committed , now you need to deliver, not just talk the talk! 🙂
Cheers.
Jay.
Hi Alessio, thanks for what you wrote. I do think you have a point…but also trust in the market is important isn’t it? In other words, spreading these information is doing your game, if people start shifting their investments the way you predicted you are making money right?
This blog is so fail…. and so are these comments. Here’s a real summary of your retarded BBC interview:
Yes, trading is a zero sum game. Holding out for vol spikes is a reasonble strategy although you might spend a lot of time on the sidelines.
No serious commodity or forex trader would make the claim that any one entity controls those markets or has clairvoyance on their direction (much less control over it). As someone who works in the interdealer space with real flow traders managing global books I can assure you that no single entity ‘rules the world’ and that most traders and dealers are deeply concerned about the state of the world economies and welcome appropriate instrument regulation.
Traders are not the apex predators that you make them out to be. They are more like hyenas that scavenge, stick to what they know and take whatever easy setup they can find.
‘The big money, the smart money … hedge funds..’ : Lol. You idiot, hedge funds are not big money or smart money. They are fee scalpers designed to make rich people feel important. Come see a real global book managed by a prime dealer sometime.
Oh and your seminar pics are a joke. Anyone can speak at those retarded events. Put some serious credentials up on your site or gtfo of trading you noob. At the very least, stop filling people’s heads with stupid rants about machinations you know nothing about.
i just got my question wiped out , thank for your kindness sir!
Hi! Nice article! I am just a frequent visitor (much like addict ) of your website sadly I had a issue. I’m not actually absoluterly certain if it is the right place to ask, but there are no spam comments. I receive comments on a daily basis. Will you assist me? Regards!
“thanks for your comment.
Alessio Rastani
September 29, 2011 at 8:56 am
Well, let’s hope not. But thanks for your input.
Alessio Rastani
September 29, 2011 at 8:57 am
Thank you – I will consider it.
Alessio Rastani
September 29, 2011 at 9:03 am
I am not into censorship Jean. Thanks for your comment.”
It’s cool that you are so courteous in your vague replies, but can’t you focus and give us some useful, practical tips?
Dear Alessio,
I am doing my best to leave Europe in recession. Don t worry your prays that Greece will default will come true. Keep up the short positions and buy Greek CDS.You will be paid.
Kind Regards,
Angela Merkel
hi l know nothing about stockmarkets but would love to know how you do it . and how l can too,make money on the stockmarket ,after all hate the game ,not the player.thank you for your honest on bbc l saw it on alex jones show.
So how rich do you have to already be to get involved?
what you forgot to mention is Jesse Livermore ended up losing all his money…
Should we buy gold? I’m getting scared. Am retired with only a little in stock and have already lost all the profit I made over the last few years.
what should I do?
Good question Bobbi. I would not be scared. It is best to make an investment decisions with a cool head, and free from negative emotions. We shall see in coming weeks if Gold will hold and gain strength. Will keep you posted on this blog and trading alerts.
good point adam – I should have mentioned it. But Jesse livermore lost it because he got greedy and lost the discipline that made him his initial wealth.
Mate, you sound like an amateur! Are “trends” and “1930’s” you are familiar with in Finance??
What a waste of my 5 precious minutes!
R
Jesse Livermore made more than 100 Million Dollar in the Great Depression by sticking to his plan, while everybody else lost their fortune. He was the greatest ever.
Jesse killed himself because of personal family problems.
Gold?
In a deflation process EVERY asset will collapse, the goldbubble will sooner or later deflate and burst, big time.
The only place to be is the US Dollar. Take a look at USD TRY or USD ZAR, then u know what to do.
Alessio, we are dreming the same dream.
Stick to your plan.
Greets
TR
Hi Alessio,
Good interview on BBC, but I have a question to ask, how would you respond to this newspaper article, it’s alleges that over the past four years that you haven’t made any money? And that your unqualified to be making the assertions that you’ve made?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html
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Alessio,
Great point. thanks for saying the truth. For those of us with a small amount in some stocks/mutual funds perhaps it’s time for a sell of and taking the opportunity to by some treasury bonds and even us dollar. Is that a good strategy?
Very excellent write-up. I really found any web site and additionally needed to make sure you state which usually I have truly loved browsing any weblog and additionally articles. Nevertheless I’ll come to be checking any satisfy and additionally Document wish to make sure you look over any weblog once again.
That is a matter near to my heart cheers, exactly where are your speak to facts although?
Thanks KG. I’ll do my best to help you and everyone in any way I can. Glad to have you as a reader. Will keep you posted.
Thanks Chad. I am watching the markets at the moment – keep your eye on it. Next 2 weeks should be very interesting.
Thanks Keith – I appreciate your recommendations. Am very grateful for that.
Actually T. – I would half-way agree with you. As Linda Raschke says, we can be good at predicting the beginning of a trend or a move, but not so clever at predicting the magnitude of the move or its extent. Thanks.
The question of how long is a tough one. But I believe gold and silver still have good long term prospects unless we see evidence to contrary.
Thanks Caroline – I hope I did not scare you.
Hi John – yes I use the 50 MA and the MACD. For me it is all about staying on the path of least resistance (so i recommend look at the higher timeframes too to confirm). good job so far and thanks for your comment.
Excellent article and easy to understand explanation. How do I go about getting permission to post part of the article in my upcoming newsletter? Giving proper credit to you the author and link to the site would not be a problem.
Yes that is fine Judson. Go right ahead, and thank you for giving credit.
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It takes courage to be prosperous. That’s why 78% of lottery winners are broke. It’s like handing the keys to a Lamborghini to a 12 yr old who doesn’t have a drivers license. Being a technician and using charts to prosperous from trends give you the courage. Remember, the markets go sideways roughly 65% of time. You’ll always have the scaredy cats that will accuse you of being evil and greedy. They look for parity. Using charts to leverage wealth from the market(s) allows you to truly become independent. Nobody owns you. It also allows you to show the scaredy cats that you have more time and money to donate to least fortunate amongst us. trust me, they will not have a comeback.
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“The world is going to hell in a handbasket, and I know what you can do about it …….. but won’t tell you even a few details so you can evaluate my ideas, unless you pay a huge fee ……. trust me, would I lie to you?”
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Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I get actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.
Yeah not so easy task but a determined one never looses hope¡And also if he/she can find the right way or ways from an expert hand¡then nothing matters.
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Wow! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Great choice of colors!
This is the first time that i have to think about this. Because you have a different point of view. Very good Article. Thanks.
Alessio Rastani You havent answered Colin’s question
Colin Byrne
September 30, 2011 at 7:47 am
Hi Alessio,
Good interview on BBC, but I have a question to ask, how would you respond to this newspaper article, it’s alleges that over the past four years that you haven’t made any money? And that your unqualified to be making the assertions that you’ve made?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html
agree with you, Alessio, we don’t care about up or down, we make money from trend, shortselling/ shortsqueezing are pre-requisite before we sit down on the casino table. Fred
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great stuff on out here
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Hey Alessio!! I am from the netherlands! I seen you last time in an intervieuw on the alex jones show, and i am trying and trying to learn to trade, and i am sometimes sitting up all night to understand and earn money in these volatile markets. Thanks for your “opening gap” trading strategy. I looked at the charts and most of the time it really works like you explained in your video. Thanks for all and i hope to find more smart, persistent and honest people like yourself. All the best and thanks again buddy!!
I ought to say, youve got 1 of the best blogs Ive seen in a lengthy time. What I wouldnt give to be able to produce a blog thats as interesting as this. I guess Ill just need to keep reading yours and hope that one day I can write on a subject with as significantly knowledge as youve got on this 1!
After research a number of of the blog posts on your web site now, and I actually like your method of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark web site listing and shall be checking again soon. Pls check out my site as well and let me know what you think.
Hi Jonathan. don’t know if I responded already to your comment on my blog, but thank you for your reponse. You’re abolutely correct.
Thanks JM!! I appreciate that.
Hey Matthew thanks for your comment on my blog. I don’t follow the Austrian business cycle much. There is a lot of talk about the currency being devalued I agree. I think it is possible. But in times of crisis the dollar is usually viewed as a safe haven. So go figure. Thanks.
Hi Jeb. Thanks for embedding the video and commenting on my blog. I think you’re correct about deflation. Cheers. Alessio
Thank you Nick. I like your comment on my blog. I see your point about the contradiction. I still believe in sticking to sound money management rules and not giving in to unbridled greed. Cheers. Alessio
Thanks Joe.
Hi Rita – apologies for late reply to your comment on my blog. I am sorry to hear about losing your job. This is one of the situations that the so-called financial “experts” of this world have got us into. If your savings are less than £85K then technically they are “protected” (but there is no guarantee the government will honour its promise). I am not giving financial advice here, but personally I see property and precious metals as good long term investments (as opposed to Stocks they won’t go to zero). Thanks again.
Thank you Paul for your comment, but I did inadvertently expose others who do take people’s livelihoods. But I see where you are coming from. Thanks.
Hi Caroline. Thank you for your thoughtful comment on my blog. Yes I agree the words make it appear opportunistic. But then that is what the markets are all about. Listen, you won’t blame a fireman from putting out a fire (that is his job) and same goes for the undertaker which you mentioned. Same goes with people who trade the markets – you see an opportunity, you take it, right? Thanks. Alessio
John – thank you for your very intelligent answer and response on my blog. I think a lot of people misunderstand what the markets are all about and I totally agree with your point about the illusory value of money. Hope I can welcome you to come back and comment on more of my posts. Cheers. Alessio
Hi Mark – LOL no I do not work ECB. Cheers buddy, Al
Thank you and hello to spain!
Leonard – excellent point about the ETFs and options. You’re absolutely right. Cheers.
Alastair – in regards making money from next crash – I would direct you to some recent posts on my blog. Also – I am sending out info on this via my video updates: leadingtrader.com/alerts – thanks again.
Thanks Barbara for your comment on my blog and for your support. You’re correct, there’s a lack of info on the media as to what people can do about their savings. Feel free to come back and leave comments whenever you wish. Keep well.
Hi Hubertus – thank you for your comment. Check my recent post regarding the books: https://www.leadingtrader.com/10/best-trading-books-5-books-that-will-transform-your-trading/
Alessio
Thanks Welshbloke – I appreciate your supportive comment on my blog. I agree, some people cannot face the truth. Thanks buddy. come and comment again whenever you wish. Al
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Hi, I am really impressed reading your valuable guidance in stock trading. You mentioned very truly that most people tends to earn when market only goes up and they even never took a chance to think that they could make money while there is recession in stock market. Your idea to earn money when there is recession in market is absolutely true. But one has to develop confidence to do that. I really appreciate your views. It is remarkable and well informed for everybody who are in line of earning money with stock markets. Good guidelines. I once again thankful to you for providing these remarkable guidelines. I learnt a lot from your teachings. Yours is an excellent blog.
Hi. I do understand your viewpoints on the recession. However, i feel that there are more factors then just speed to take into consideration when placing yourself in a market. True, after recession comes expansion, but there are other good principles to look at when making important decisions regarding how to capitalize on the “BIG TRENDS”.
This is my view, which agrees with yours, but elaborates on ideals, principles and a specific company that shows EVERYONE how to win in this economy. 5 key elements are needed.
During an economic recession, or even the illusion or awareness of a recession, the rules of engagement change. For decades the network marketing industry has lived with a cap on it’s capacity. A cap that in 2008 we removed, or at least expanded the capacity for:
1) Speed of Growth
2) Longevity of Residual Income
3) Income Potential
4) Attraction of Leaders
5) Simplicity
These are not the 5 principals of a 7 figure business, but they are the RESULTS of the 5 principals below. These results are game changers. Lets FIRST explore these results, then I will unveil the secrets of how to get them.
FIRST RESULT: Speed of Growth
This can also be called VELOCITY. Velocity becomes your multiplier for momentum. In the study of a rocket ship, I recently learned at the NASA space museum, speed of the launch is the secret to a successful orbit. The rocket boosters are only used for 2 minutes, but because of the rapid combustion of the engines, it’s able to lift the rocket into an entire 7 day orbit around the solar system. 2 minutes of rapid explosion equals 10,080 minutes of energy free travel! Imagine that ratio in business: 2 months of focused energy would return 10,080 months of residual income! Speed of growth is vital to success! (And I need to add as well: the speed of creating 6 and 7 figure incomes has gone from a 3-5 yr plan to a 1 to 3 yr plan.) Anything otherwise is an archaic model.
SECOND RESULT: Longevity of Residual Income
Another vital result is the longevity or your residual income, the longevity of your momentum, of your growth, or in other words “building a long term business”. The days of “here today, gone tomorrow” business is hopefully coming to an end. The hopping from mlm to mlm is dangerous, destructive, and unhealthy to all that it touches. Building a real, lasting, generational stream of wealth is our only goal. The 5 principals below are designed to insure exactly that: “build it ONE time for the LAST time”. Long term generational wealth.
THIRD RESULT Income Potential
Income earnings have and MUST change. Just with inflation alone, the cost of living doubles ever 17 years! Yesterday’s 6 figure income is today’s $250,000 income. The real goal now is 7 figures and above (and within 18-36 months is what we teach). Our goal is to create 1000 250k ring earners (250k a year). In the past this audacious goal was unrealistic; but in today’s new era of network marketing, with the 5 principals below, that goal will be achieved. This would yield over 100 7 figure a year earners in our team; a new landmark for the industry is now possible.
FOURTH RESULT Attraction of Leaders
Another result these 5 principals will yield is attraction of leaders. It’s difficult to attract leaders from one pond to another pond. BUT it’s much more attractive when you’re offering an OCEAN to leaders who have been a big fish in a small pond. While many are content with the pond; REAL leaders are looking for and READY for a new era of capacity. So many leaders haven’t been led in so long; But they deeply long to be impacted and be a real IMPACT on others; and within them is the heart of a lion; a warrior of freedom; unafraid and prepared for new heights in leadership! Big fish in a big ocean is our motto!
FIFTH RESULT Simplicity
The fifth result, and also the 1st PRINCIPAL is SIMPLiCITY!
“The easier something is to do, the more people you can help to do it!”. It takes a genius to take the complex and make it SIMPLE! It takes the humble to KEEP it simple. Simplicity is both a FRUIT and a ROOT for this new era of MLM. It is a philosophy that must permeate every other philosophy and action in building your enterprise. And so…I will introduce you to our 5 secrets to a new era of mlm wealth!
5 Principles to Winning Big during a Losing Economy
PRINCIPLE 1: Simplicity
It must be easy and simple! Not to say YOU need it easy, but an underlying principal, or goal, or mission statement of successful networking is this: “to create a large group of people, who do a few SIMPLE things, on a consistent basis.” This is the mantra of our industry. And while you and I may possess mountain moving abilities, if we are to mobilize the masses, we must keep everything reduced to its simplest terms. So when looking at a company, evaluate every facet of product; system; and compensation through this filter: IS IT EASY and SIMPLE.
PRINCIPLE 2: Sample Marketing with an In Demand Product
If you have a product that is already in high demand, a product that people WANT to try, it makes getting that product in the hands of prospects EASY. Never do anything again that isn’t anchored on SAMPLE marketing for 2 reasons:
First, if it’s a product people WANT, then your product becomes your #1 star, your product becomes your #1 tool for marketing. This creates commissionable volume, it removes SALES from the equation, it creates a VIRAL growth BEYOND duplication, and it satisfies rule #1 of being simple and easy!
Second, it creates a marketing paradigm shift. Until now, mlm companies have been forced to lead with their opportunity. Questions like “do you keep your income options open” are heir marks of the industry; and land mines for keeping YOUR message from being heard. When you LEAD with a product (i.e. do you or anyone you know drink coffee…) the MLM walls never appear, people are EXCITED to try your product, and most importantly YOUR STORY ISN’T JUST HEARD, it’s tasted and FELT; your message is experienced!
PRINCIPLE 3: Merging TWO Major Industry Growth Trends
The merging of Health and Wellness with a widespread, ESTABLISHED habit creates greater receptivity to the message. For us, it’s taking gourmet coffee that people LOVE to drink every day, and making it healthy! People spend money daily and have a habit of buying coffee; it feels good! Instead of trying to introduce a weird concept, a weird product or herb, instead of taking people AWAY from the norm; we BROUGHT what they NEED into what they WANT. I cannot over emphasize this POWER PRINCIPAL! Because we have a product that is ALREADY in high demand (500,000,000 cups a day in north America), we remove the “weird” factor and keep people IN their comfort zone.
PRINCIPLE 4: Leadership Driven Compensation
A comp plan is designed to drive a certain set of behaviors; and for most companies that behavior is “recruit” or “sell”. However; I don’t want to “recruit” or “sell” ever again! In other words I want to recruit and sell short term so that I NEVER HAVE TO recruit or sell AGAIN! A leadership driven comp plan has 2 strong elements:
First, it allows unlimited depth for team building income, removing breakaway or level cutoffs in recruiting and team building bonuses. In clearer terms: if I recruit John (a beast of a builder) I should be able to place John 1000 levels deep under an entire team of leaders, and get paid EQUALLY for everyone who JOINS that team. A great comp plan won’t CUT ME OUT if someone reaches or exceeds my level! Unlimited depth is VITAL for team building AND especially for momentum!
Second, a great comp plan will reward you RESIDUALLY for building Leaders under leaders under leaders! A great comp plan should NEVER lower your income or your overrides for helping others REACH or EXCEED your level. The continued purchase of your product; and the continual INCREASE in your residual income must be REAL! A great comp plan rewards leadership; it doesn’t demote great leadership.
To have both unlimited depth and unlimited width built into our comp plan is simply genius. I haven’t EVER seen a compensation plan this perfect. With a high volume product like healthy coffee, and a rapid growing distributor team because it’s so easy, and a compensation that rewards BOTH is simply a dream come true!
PRINCIPLE 5: Real Life, Real Time, System Driven Success Stories
The secret ISN’T a great system, it’s a GREAT SYSTEM that has been PROVEN with Real Life, Real Time, System Driven Success! Few, VERY VERY VERY FEW companies have leaders that went back to WORK, built authentically through the SYSTEM, without short cuts, without PAYING or CUTTING deals! It’s sad, but 100% true! We are one of the ONLY companies that doesn’t PAY leaders to come over; doesn’t let ANYONE on stage for previous industry success! Our company has broken RECORDS because WE DID IT! We took a real system, and went to REAL work with a REAL product and REAL people; it’s simply the final and most important principal: Real Life, Real Time, System Driven Success Stories! Great leaders LEAD by example.
If you are looking for a winning team, with a winning coach, during a losing economy, let’s talk. If these results and principals resonate with you, please contact me for free coffee samples, and more info on our one of a kind business model.
Success is a SCIENCE
A must read article for traders.
The global economic recession/depression has what to do with the Maya calendar and the “end of time”on 21.12.2012…Manhattan island is local masonic copy of Mesopotamia(Dark Rift)in Milky Way-in the shape of female lap/grotto,just as is the Sinai peninsula,and other copies on global scale…It is the female stargate with the Black Hole(CygnusX1-the Swan)and the galactic centre tied to it,as the cosmic WOMB…WTC1+WTC2+US Stock Market buildings were a local masonic copy of the male-ityphallic stargate in the4 Belt of Orion(known also as Min or Tav)…When the masons of the Blue Lodge ruined the Twin Towers,it was clear that the next will be ruined the US Stock Market and the US economy with global effect-recession and depression-caused deliberately by the masonic mega-banksters…After the galactic Trinity alignment on 21.12.2012 will descend the Maya Bolon Yokte Ku-god of Judgement of the world,Warrior and Storm god…The Blue Lodge of the West shall unleash war against Iran-their way of “economic recovery” which will possibly end up in WW3 and depopulation of the world…You can reflect it upon the worsening weather on global scale…Our Sun affected by the Black Hole and centre of our galaxy,affecting our planet Earth…This is the real reason behind the so called “Global warming”and not man made activities which contribute to it,but is not the main cause of it…After masonic collapse of Red(East)will follow collapse of the Blue(west)corporeal Capitalism…The future in Golden Age belongs to China(and Yellow race)-the Empire of the Centre(Chung-kuo)with Socialism to be replacing the current communist government and capitalist(crude)economy…They call it today as future “harmonious society”…But before the Golden Age arrives,there will be brief Clay Age of meltdown to the red clay of Potter/Creator who will remold this old world on his Potter’s Wheel into a New Age of Aquarius/potter,whose symbol is the Jar,but also Trident and sea waves…Potter is Yoser and Djoser…Even the 30 silver of Juda’s betrayal ended on Potter’s Field…The reason why the masons had popularised the books of Harry Potter…
Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending, often following an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.